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Premier League Summer Transfer Analysis 23/24 [Part Three]

The transfer machine keeps on rolling. We'll share our analysis on what to expect from each new arrival from a Draft EPL Fantasy perspective between now and when the Premier League transfer window slams shut on September 1. Our second installment looks at players confirmed by their respective clubs between July 16 and July 30. Follow along with our summer transfer series and so much more in our 23/24 Draft Kit. Check out our Pricing Plans for pre-season and season-long access to our in-depth fantasy analysis.

Nathan Redmond playing for Southampton in the Premier League

Check out our 23/24 Draft Kit for all the pre-season information you could ever need. We've got a Live Draft Aide, Draft Rankings, Team Previews, Cheat Sheets, Strategy Articles, Draft 101. Dominate your draft!


23/24 Premier League Confirmed Transfers Analysis

Below, Gavin Wright and Tottiandor list each Premier League transfer individually, providing their analysis of how they will perform in the 23/24 Premier League season. We use a five-star rating model to rank the new signings relative to their draft value; use these as a guide to help get your Draft Premier League season off to a flyer!


We’ve ranked the prospects based on a star rating, from 1 to 5:

⭐️ = Steer clear

⭐️⭐️ = Wait and see

⭐️⭐️⭐️ = Could be worth a punt

⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️ = Great prospect

⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️ = The Premier League signing you’ve been waiting for!


The Premier League Summer Transfer Signings covered here were confirmed by their respective clubs between July 16 and July 30 (catch up here on Part 1 & Part 2, and stay tuned for future installments through the end of the transfer window!).


Harvey Barnes

Position: Left winger (M in Fantrax)

Team: Newcastle United

Signed From: Leicester City for £38m


Prospects: Out with the old, In with the new (and better)! As much fun as it was to watch ASM dribble around on the left wing for the last couple of seasons, Newcastle have become a tactically sound, serious top 4 challenging team and they require more disciplined players to compete. Harvey Barnes has come in to take over the LW spot and I am sure Eddie Howe is over the moon. A hard-working, tactically flexible winger, he likes to drop into the half-space much more than his predecessor, and he is much more of a direct attacking threat who likes to create opportunities for himself rather than others.

Barnes is a proven Premier League asset who is capable of playing through a season with limited to no injury time off. He has featured in 32+ games in 3 out of 4 of his full Premier League seasons. He has managed 13+ attacking returns in all 4 of his full Premier League seasons from an xG of 10+ in 3 of them. It's worth noting that the former Leicester winger hasn't historically offered much in the way of ghost point production (4.8 ghost points per start in 22/23 is woeful), but he may still be a good fantasy player in Eddie Howe's system that prioritizes getting the wide forwards into scoring positions. Barnes currently has an ADP of around 70, but I expect him to be off the board by the end of round 5 at the latest, which should be a good spot for him.


Rating: ⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️


Moussa Diaby

Position: Right winger (F in Fantrax)

Team: Aston Villa

Signed From: Bayer Leverkusen for €50m


Prospects: Aston Villa have done some great business this summer, with Diaby being the best of the new arrivals for fantasy purposes. With Leon Bailey struggling to make an impact in the Premier League, Unai Emery has instead turned to another right winger from Leverkusen to add some dynamism and offload some of the attacking burden on Ollie Watkins. Diaby has slotted right in and looked at home in pre-season, which isn't always the best indicator but is at least a positive sign that the Frenchman will be able to adapt to his new team's tactical setup.


Adjusting for Fantrax Default Scoring, Diaby offered 12 points per 90 last season in the Bundesliga, 7.7 of which were ghost points. He also provided Leverkusen with 9 goals and 8 assists across his 33 starts. His pace and directness should provide Villa with an additional goal threat this season, and we may see him utilized more like a second striker than a traditional winger. The second attacker role in Emery's system hasn't yet yielded top-level fantasy output, but that could change with a player being available to make the role his own long-term rather than a rotating cast of characters. Expectations and excitement are high for the Villa new boy, but it is worth noting that he profiles extremely similarly to the aforementioned Leon Bailey, so there's no guarantee he knocks it out of the park in the Premier League. That said, the Frenchman has a very clean injury history by comparison, so minutes/availability will hopefully help him far exceed what his Jamaican teammate has been able to produce for Villa.


Rating: ⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️


Arnaut Danjuma

Position: Winger/striker (F in Fantrax)

Team: Everton

Signed From: Villarreal on a season-long loan


Prospects: Everton finally have their man, and there's a solid argument to be made that Tottenham really didn't have any need to hijack their deal for Danjuma back in January. Spurs only handed the Dutch winger nine appearances and only one start after his arrival in the winter window. If Everton had been relegated, it would have been cause for uproar. Thankfully for the Toffees, they've remained in the top flight and now have the opportunity to see what sort of impact Danjuma can make for them.


In terms of scouting from a Premier League perspective, there's really not enough evidence to tell whether the former Tottenham and Bournemouth player has what it takes to succeed at the top level. So instead, we'll look at his time in La Liga at Villarreal. Danjuma provided the Spanish club 10 goals and 3 assists in 23 appearances (17 starts) in the 21/22 season, ranking in the 96th percentile or better for non-penalty expected goals, total shots, progressive carries, successful take-ons and touches inside the penalty area compared with other forwards in the league.


With rumors of a potentially serious injury to Dwight McNeil, Demarai Gray linked with a move away from the club and Dominic Calvert-Lewin not yet up to full fitness, there should be plenty of minutes to go around for Danjuma across the attacking positions. And Everton has a favorable opening fixture run that includes matches against Fulham, Wolves and Sheffield United. Anywhere after the halfway point of the draft (round 8/9) should be a good time to start thinking about adding him to your roster.


Rating: ⭐️⭐️⭐️1/2


Milos Kerkez

Position: Left back (D in Fantrax)

Team: Bournemouth

Signed From: AZ Alkmaar for £18m


Prospects: The Hungarian full back is one of the marquee signings of the summer for the south coast club. snapped up from the clutches of a transfer already almost agreed to Lazio, Kerkez comes in to replace Vina, whose loan was not extended. He was hot property partly because he is 1 of 5 U19 players, and the only defender, to have 10+ returns in all competitions from Europe’s top 15 leagues this past season. He is a super-attacking fullback who scored in the 80 percentile or above in non-penalty goals, non-penalty xG, touches in the opponent penalty area and progressive passes received when compared to other fullbacks. He does well in all the attacking metrics - crosses, overlaps and dribbles - and regularly finds himself in very attacking areas. This is exactly why Iraola (a fullback himself in his playing days) wanted him in at Bournemouth to implement his system, which relies heavily in attacking through wide players (especially fullbacks pushed up to the max). Kerkez put up 10.7 PP90 and 8.1 GP90 last year in the Eredivisie for a 4th-place Alkmaar, which will most likely drop a bit due to him being on a comparatively worse team in his division. He profiles similarly to Tariq Lamptey and Matt Doherty. He will be available to draft likely after the 10th round and after some rocky initial fixtures, could provide good value.


Rating: ⭐️⭐️⭐️1/2


Zeki Amdouni

Position: Striker/winger (F in Fantrax)

Team: Burnley

Signed From: FC Basel for £16m


Prospects: If Burnley didn't have their GW2 fixture against Luton postponed, we may have given new Burnley striker Amdouni a full third star, perhaps against our better judgment as he's only started one preseason match for the Clarets. The 22 year-old Swiss international is a versatile young attacker who has seen a meteoric rise in his stocks over the past twelve months given his goal scoring record at Basel. He contributed 12 goals and 4 assists for his club in 23 starts last campaign.


Capable of playing on either wing, he'll almost certainly be utilized more frequently as a striker under Vincent Kompany given the ridiculous number of wingers in the squad. He is a volume shooter and not afraid to take on his man, and also offers a high defensive workrate. Amdouni will be competing with 34 year-old Jay Rodriguez for the starting role this season. He may not earn it right out of the gate as he adjusts to the pace of the Premier League, but is one who appears to be a better fit in the long-term for Kompany's style of play. Burnley's opening match against Manchester City and the blank in GW2 likely affords the opportunity to pass on him in the draft, but he's certainly one to watch given his potential.


Rating: ⭐️⭐️1/2


Calvin Bassey

Position: Center back/left back (D in Fantrax)

Team: Fulham

Signed From: Ajax for £19m


Prospects: Fulham have pulled off a bit of a transfer coup with the signing of Bassey from Ajax. The former Rangers defender has been on the radar of a host of European clubs, but will head to Craven Cottage to put his skills to the test in the Premier League. The Nigerian is capable of playing at left back, but will be expected to spend most, if not all, of his time at CB for the Cottagers. He is excellent in possession, comparing very favorably to other central defenders for pass attempts, progressive passes and carries, and successful take-ons. As a front-foot defender, expect Bassey to offer a solid foundation of ghost points from tackles and interceptions, as well as the occasional attacking contribution in the form of key passes.


One area where he may not offer as much value as his positional counterparts is in aerial duels, which may end up putting him back on level terms with your average CBs. Not a bad option for the last round or two given Fulham's opening fixture against Everton, but you could probably leave him alone and pick him up after the draft if you want to go for a lottery ticket instead.


Rating: ⭐️⭐️1/2


Raul Jimenez

Position: Striker (F in Fantrax)

Team: Fulham

Signed From: Wolves for £5m


Prospects: Jimenez was one of the league's top strikers in the 2019/20 season, providing 17 goals and 6 assists for Wolves. This was no fluke, either, as he delivered 13/7 the previous season. A sickening aerial collision with David Luiz in November 2020 resulted in a fractured skull and a long path to recovery. While he made his return in the 21/22 season and showed some promise of getting back to his best, last season was an altogether different story. The Mexican had a brief stint where he appeared to be first choice for Julen Lopetegui, but was eventually dropped and made only one start across the final two months of the campaign. Whether or not he can regain some semblance of his confidence and goalscoring form at Fulham largely depends on the future of Aleksandar Mitrovic, which is anything but clear at the moment. If Mitro leaves, Jimenez will have a pretty decent chance of earning the starting role at striker ahead of Carlos Vinicius and could be a value pick after round 10. If Mitro stays, he's not worth drafting.


Rating: ⭐️⭐️1/2


Anthony Elanga

Position: Winger/striker (F in Fantrax)

Team: Nottingham Forest

Signed From: Manchester United for £15m


Prospects: As we touched on in our Nottingham Forest team preview, Steve Cooper's side is in desperate need of goals for the upcoming season, so it makes sense that they prioritized a move for a goalscoring winger like Elanga. Forest have a mixed fixture list to begin the season, with trips to face Arsenal, Man United and Chelsea balanced out by home matches against newly-promoted Sheffield United and Burnley. With Brennan Johnson currently still at the club, the best recommendation here is probably to avoid Elanga in your draft and keep an eye on team news in the opener against the Gunners. If he manages to start, he's a good waiver candidate to bring in ahead of the GW2 match against the Blades. If you're light on forwards towards the end of your draft, though, you could do worse than stashing the youngster for a week. Just be prepared to drop if he doesn't start.


Rating: ⭐️⭐️1/2


Matt Doherty

Position: Right back (D in Fantrax)

Team: Wolves

Signed From: Free agency


Prospects: The prodigal son returns. Matt Doherty is back at Wolves, where he made a name for himself both in real life and for fantasy. However, this is a very very different Wolves than the team he left 2 seasons ago. Two managers have come and gone, a lot of good players have left, some have come in and most have failed to produce. Julen Lopetegui stopped the rot last season, but they have not made any moves in the off-season yet and it is difficult to see this team not fighting a relegation battle. Lopetegui will want to rely heavily on a very solid defence to nick points in games they may not be fancied to avoid the drop and surprisingly Doherty has not gotten better at defending in his time away from the team. Semedo has a grip on the RB spot for now (he could still leave) and that leaves Doherty very much without a spot in the Starting XI. We could speculate on him starting on the right in a front 3, we could envisage a shift in tactics to accommodate his attacking potential, but ultimately, the most likely scenario is that he has come back because he is a cheap option who knows the club and is able to provide flair as a sub, which has been missing when Wolves were looking to chase games.


Rating: ⭐️1/2

 

Not Worth Drafting

  • Igor Julio (D, Brighton) - Despite Brighton's solid opening fixture run, it'd be a waste to use a draft spot on a center back who has not featured in pre-season. One to keep an eye on and potentially stream if he starts the opener against Luton. ⭐️⭐️

  • Nathan Redmond (M, Burnley) - A former fantasy favorite, he'll have to contend with a plethora of other wide attacking options. Too much uncertainty to take in the draft, but could be useful in good match-ups when starting. ⭐️⭐️

  • Benie Traore (F, Sheffield United) - Very young and inexperienced striker who may be given more opportunities than originally planned with the departure of Iliman Ndiaye. Jury's out on whether he'll adapt quickly to life in the Premier League. ⭐️⭐️

  • Issa Kabore / Ryan Giles (D, Luton) - Luton's wingbacks look like a potential area for decent fantasy output, at least in terms of attacking stats. Without a fixture in GW2, waiting to see what shakes out for a few weeks is your best bet to determine whether either is worth rostering. ⭐️⭐️

  • Ola Aina (D, Nottingham Forest) - Historically a right back, he can also fill in on the left side of defense. He'll be competing with Neco Williams and possibly Omar Richards & Harry Toffolo for minutes. Forest have a tough opening schedule, so you can afford to wait on their defenders, in particular. ⭐️⭐️

  • Jacob Bruun Larsen (M, Burnley) - Similar to Redmond but without Premier League experience. Avoid. ⭐️

  • Angelo Gabriel (F, Chelsea) - Exciting winger who has shown glimpses of potential in pre-season, but likely won't find a role as a regular starter this season. ⭐️

  • Marvelous Nakamba (M, Luton) - A holding midfielder for a promoted team is almost never worth rostering. ⭐️

  • Yasser Larouci (D, Sheffield United) - Young wingback who may or may not find first-team minutes this season. ⭐️

 
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