Welcome to The Draft Society’s team-by-team previews, a vital part of the 23/24 Draft Kit! These articles will provide a one-stop-shop for all the important Fantasy EPL themes from a Fantrax perspective. With players to watch, players to avoid, points projections and early season fixtures analysis, we've got it all covered. Our Draft Premier League Team Previews will help set you up to dominate your draft! Let's have a look at Eddie Howe's Champions League bound Newcastle team and their fantasy prospects for 23/24.
Check back often! Our team previews will be updated throughout the summer as any new transfer, injury, or rotation developments come to light.
Check out our 23/24 Draft Kit for all the pre-season information you could ever need. We've got a Live Draft Aide, Draft Rankings, Team Previews, Cheat Sheets, Strategy Articles, Draft 101, plus so much more!
Newcastle Team Preview 23/24
Check out our in-depth look at Newcastle's prospects for the new EPL season below. This information will form a key component to your draft prep and set you up to dominate your draft!
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Fantasy Flashback
Let's review how Newcastle players fared in 22/23, with an emphasis on their Draft Premier League fantasy assets. But, we'll also discuss any pertinent info regarding managerial tactics, formation, injuries, etc. What can we learn from their performance in the last campaign?
Note: The following table is interactive. Desktop users can apply the Filter, Group, and Sort buttons to arrange the data to their preferences. Mobile users can tap on a player card to view all data points. The table can be reset to its default state by refreshing the page.
The Magpies offered up the joint-highest number of players to reach our 6+ starts at 7+ points-per-start threshold for fantasy relevance. That comes as a bit of a surprise given the general perception about Eddie Howe keeping a settled side. Surprise is perhaps the most appropriate word to sum up the whole of Newcastle’s 22/23 campaign. The takeover by the Saudi PIF in October 2021 was seen as a major step forward for the club as they looked to move on from years of underinvestment and a stagnating squad under previous owner Mike Ashley, but only the most optimistic Newcastle fans would have predicted such a rapid change in fortunes in 22/23 for a club that had been in a relegation battle the season before.
Fantasy managers followed suit, investing their draft capital cautiously when it came to Newcastle assets. In fact, the team’s top 8 fantasy scorers in 22/23 significantly outperformed their ADP, and it isn’t until we get to Bruno Guimaraes and his respectable 67th overall finish that we find a player who didn’t quite live up to the lofty expectations placed upon him in pre-season. Kieran Trippier proved his blistering, yet brief stint in the team in 21/22 wasn’t a fluke and managed to stay fit all season on his way to a 3rd place finish overall (14.8 PPS). While Allan Saint-Maximin followed closely behind in terms of points per start (13.3), he wasn’t able to overcome his own torrid injury history, falling well short of his second- or third-round valuation.
There were plenty of points to go around all over the pitch, with Eddie Howe’s focus on developing a strong defensive foundation in his early days at the club resulting in all of his regular back five finishing inside the top 100 overall scorers. Fabian Schar was the biggest surprise in the backline, with many assuming he’d be supplanted by new signing Sven Botman rather than playing alongside him. Their partnership saw Dan Burn shifted to left back and keeping former fantasy darling Matt Targett on the sidelines. In midfield, Miguel Almiron made a mockery of Jack Grealish’s criticism of him, and up top both Callum Wilson and Alexander Isak delivered at elite levels when they were fit and in the starting lineup (not as common an occurrence as Geordie fans would have liked).
Overall Team Performance
As with fans and fantasy managers, it seems like opposition teams underestimated Newcastle last season as well. Eddie Howe found a winning formula between the assured defense, versatile midfield and dynamic attack. Despite all their success, there were some cracks that began to show toward the end of the season. It’s a fantastic achievement to have the joint-best defensive record in the Premier League, but that stat doesn’t paint the full picture. It feels wrong going in for a bit of criticism with a team that vastly exceeded expectations with a fourth place finish in the Premier League, but following 12 League clean sheets between August and January, Newcastle only managed two across the last four months of the campaign.
Could that be a sign of opposition managers figuring them out, or could fatigue have come into the equation given each of the back five managed at least 35 starts in the Prem? In any case, it’s a slight cause for concern ahead of the upcoming season, particularly with Newcastle recording the joint-most draws in the division with 14. With European competition on the docket in 23/24 and the element of surprise no longer likely to be a factor, they’ll need to identify the source of the drop-off and make the necessary adjustments to rectify it.
Fantasy Forecast
Past is prelude, as they say. So, turning to the 23/24 season, we've got Newcastle player projections, 3 key players to keep an eye on, 3 players we're staying away from, 3 question marks surrounding the club at this moment, and an analysis of the Magpies' early-season fixtures.
23/24 Player Projections
Below, you'll find our season projections for Newcastle fantasy assets. Our projections are created using a number of contributing factors such as past performance, fixture difficulty ratings, anticipated minutes played, and more. PPS (Points Per Start) and ProjFPts (Projected Total Points) refer to Fantrax Default Scoring.
Our projections for the upcoming season paint a similar story of defensive success for the Magpies, with last year’s nearly ever-present backline yet again leading the way in terms of overall fantasy points. It’s worth noting the slight dip in the number of starts for them, with their involvement in the Champions League potentially seeing a bit more rotation and opportunities for the fringe players in matches that take place around that competition. Trippier is far and away the best player on the team for projected WAR given the dearth of top-tier fantasy assets in defense, though even taking that into account and with an extremely healthy 13.1 PPS, there’s a significant regression predicted from the 562.25 points he scored in 22/23.
Similarly, rotation will likely play a role in the draft fortunes of midfield players like Miguel Almiron and Joelinton, who face competition for a starting role from the likes of Harvey Barnes, Sandro Tonali and Anthony Gordon, and who may see their involvement prioritized for matches against the most challenging opposition (including matches in the UCL). And then there’s the selection headache around Alexander Isak and Callum Wilson, who proved at the end of last season that they can play together but who, judging by the arrival of left-winger Barnes, probably won’t see much time in the starting lineup together this season.
All this talk of regression isn’t to dissuade you from investing in Newcastle players, bur rather a note of caution around expecting the same performance this time around with a squad that hasn’t had sufficient time to transition from relegation candidates to European contenders. There will be standout fantasy players from this team, but predicting who will emerge from the pack may be a little trickier than it would have been had Newcastle merely met their pre-season goal of a mid-table finish in 22/23.
3 Players to Watch
We've highlighted 3 players (and some honorable mentions) from Newcastle that we're keeping an eye on. Some players mentioned below may be sleepers. Some may be up-and-coming youngsters. Some may be vying for a spot in the XI. Whatever the case, we'll tell you why we're watching these 3 in EPL Draft Fantasy this year.
Alexander Isak
Position: Forward
22/23 Points: 226 (22nd best forward)
22/23 Points Per Start: 11.2 (17 starts)
Recommended Draft Pick: 20-30 (12 Team League: Round 2/3)
Analysis: The former Real Sociedad striker arrived on Tyneside to great fanfare as one of the first few statement signings from the new owners. The silky Swede scored twice in his first three Premier League matches before suffering a long-term injury that sidelined him from October to mid-January. It took a couple matches for Isak to settle back into a groove, especially as he was often deployed in an unfamiliar left wing role to accommodate Callum Wilson, but he still managed to deliver double-digit goals in an injury-stricken debut season in England. While Wilson has been a long-time favorite of the manager, Isak is the type of player that can take the club to the level they aspire to, combining a keen eye for goal with exceptional movement and on-ball ability. He’s also at the age (he’ll turn 24 early in the season) where he’s coming into his prime years, whereas Wilson is at the tail end. It’s not a guarantee, but if Isak assumes the starting role as the number 9 from the beginning of the season and can meet or exceed his projected starts in the Premier League, he’s got the potential to establish himself as one of the best forwards and fantasy assets in the game.
Bruno Guimaraes
Position: Midfielder
22/23 Points: 269.5 (39th best midfielder)
22/23 Points Per Start: 8.4 (32 starts)
Recommended Draft Pick: 75-85 (12 Team League: Round 6/7)
Analysis: Another of the early indicators that Newcastle’s Saudi-backed ownership group weren’t playing around, Bruno G. has been an essential cog in the midfield machine, offering balanced attacking and defensive skills as well as the composure needed to settle the rest of the team into a rhythm. In the absence of a traditional number 6, the Brazilian has often found himself as the deepest lying of Eddie Howe’s three-man midfield, but the signing of Sandro Tonali – a player who can similarly sit deep as a playmaker or join in attacking sequences with late runs – may afford Guimaraes more opportunities to venture farther up the pitch. As touched on in the Fantasy Flashback section, Bruno was one of the few Newcastle players who underperformed based on his ADP last season, but the prospect of better defensive coverage alongside him in midfield could help him elevate his attacking output in 23/24.
Harvey Barnes
Position: Midfielder
22/23 Points: 284.5 (35th best midfielder)
22/23 Points Per Start: 8.8 (32 starts)
Recommended Draft Pick: 65-75 (12 Team League: Round 6-7)
Analysis: Newcastle’s earlier transfer pursuit of James Maddison honestly made a lot more sense than bringing in Harvey Barnes, with the new Spurs signing capable of playing on the right wing where it’s been regularly reported the club were looking to make an upgrade. Still, with a small squad of first-team quality players, availability becomes a key factor in pushing on, and sadly we’ve arrived at the conclusion that Allan Saint-Maximin can’t be relied upon to stay fit for a significant enough proportion of a campaign to support a battle on multiple fronts. Whether it was his injury history or the FFP considerations Howe alluded to when revealing the fan-favorite Frenchman was on his way out of the club, it’s striking to see just how different a profile Barnes is to the man he’s set to replace.
The former Fox is much more similar to Miguel Almiron as a direct attacking player who looks to get into shooting positions himself rather than setting up his teammates. It will be interesting to see whether Howe will include both of them in his starting lineup and, if so, what impacts that may have on the team’s ability to create chances for its striker. This may represent a tactical shift to bring the wide forwards inside closer to goal and allow for the fullbacks to offer the width instead (more on this below). In any case, Barnes is worth getting excited about from a fantasy perspective with better support from the players around him than what Leicester was able to provide last season. One caveat is how much playing time he'll get, with Joelinton, Alexander Isak and Anthony Gordon all capable of occupying the left-wing role as well. That uncertainty is factored into the recommendation to prioritize more assured starters with your first five picks, though you may need to reach for Barnes sooner than that if you want him on your team, given his name value and upside potential.
Honorable Mention(s):
Speaking of the potential for more width and attacking impetus coming from the fullbacks, it looks like Tino Livramento could be set to join from Southampton. The youngster has primarily played as a right back and should be viewed as the long-term successor to Trippier, but he can also play on the left. If the transfer goes through before your draft, he could be a very sneaky pick in the last few rounds in hopes that there is a switch to more mobile fullbacks than incumbent Dan Burn. If he doesn’t start the season he’s an easy drop, but one you should keep an eye on as a high-upside streaming candidate.
We may also see more of Anthony Gordon this season following an exceptional Under-21 Euro tournament with England this summer, where he was named Player of the Tournament. Intriguingly, the usual wide-man was utilized as a central striker to great effect and thus could find time in any of the forward positions. He’s likely best as a streamer when starting, but one to watch in preseason to help you decide whether a late-round lottery ticket could be worthwhile for your draft.
3 Players to Avoid
It's not all sunshine and rainbows on Tyneside. At least, not as far as Draft Fantasy Football is concerned. Below, we will also highlight 3 fantasy assets that we're not so thrilled about. These are the 3 Newcastle players you might want to avoid come draft day.
Callum Wilson
Position: Forward
22/23 Points: 315.5 (10th best forward)
22/23 Points Per Start: 11.8 (21 starts)
Recommended Draft Pick: 65-75 (12 Team League: Round 6/7)
Analysis: While he only managed 21 starts in the Premier League last season, Wilson ended up as a top-10 forward and top-40 overall player. He led the team in scoring in 22/23 and was third highest overall scorer across the last two months of last season. His percentile rank is excellent for goal involvements and he’s got a longstanding partnership with the manager that spans two clubs. So why is he a player to avoid rather than an immediate pick-up for your team? Uncertainty over minutes is the primary concern (only 15 projected starts for 23/24), with Isak settled and fit to begin the new season and a new left-wing signing indicating Eddie Howe is perhaps ready to move the younger forward back to the middle.
Another thing that may work against Wilson is that his passing ability and hold-up play are relatively weak. With a seeming shift in emphasis to invert the wingers and have them make runs off the striker to get into scoring positions, Newcastle will need someone who is excellent with the ball at his feet and can make the killer pass in tight spaces without being dispossessed. They have that guy, and his name is Alexander Isak. Don’t get me wrong; Wilson still has the ability to perform to a very high standard in real life and for fantasy purposes and is worth drafting, but if you’re looking at his numbers from last season and expecting him to kick on in the same vein or even improve upon them it’s hard to see that happening. If he retains the starting role from the beginning of the season, you may be able to bring him in via trade for relatively cheap based on Newcastle’s difficult opening run of fixtures.
Dan Burn
Position: Defender
22/23 Points: 270.25 (9th best defender)
22/23 Points Per Start: 7.7 (35 starts)
Recommended Draft Pick: 90-100 (12 Team League: Round 8/9)
Analysis: Big Dan Burn was widely expected to move back into central defense upon joining Newcastle from Brighton, but surprisingly ended up in the left-back role for his new club as well. The boyhood Newcastle fan is a solid defender, and to his credit there haven’t been too many occasions where he’s been caught out by opposition attackers. That in part speaks to Eddie Howe’s pragmatism in matches; the Magpies often took a defense-first mindset in their Premier League matches last season and, as previously mentioned, it worked very well for the opening half of the campaign. With Livramento potentially coming in and other rumors that Newcastle are looking for a more traditional fullback to join their ranks on the left side, there’s definitely some risk that Burn could be transitioned into a secondary role this season. Beyond losing out on some potential minutes/starts, it’s worth taking into account where the majority of his points come from; if the clean sheets dry up this season, we’re likely looking at a drop-off from the lofty heights of last season when Burn was a top-10 defender.
Joe Willock
Position: Midfielder
22/23 Points: 298 (29th best midfielder)
22/23 Points Per Start: 9.2 (31 starts)
Recommended Draft Pick: 125-135 (12 Team League: Round 11/12)
Analysis: Former Arsenal midfielder Willock has gone from something of a cult-hero at Newcastle to a bit of a maligned figure in the space of the past two summers, which is a bit baffling. The midfielder always puts in a shift on both sides of the ball and was a key member of the squad last season. You can see from his chart that he’s a proficient and well-rounded player deserving of his place in the squad. But he’s in the reserves in just about every predicted lineup for next season, with a midfield trio of Bruno G, Joelinton and Sandro Tonali the assumed starters. As discussed, rotation will definitely come into the equation at some point during the season, but Willock appears to be first on the chopping block (or second, if you count Sean Longstaff) in order to accommodate the summer signings. That’s harsh on the 23 year-old but likely an unfortunate reality, reflected by his projected starts dropping by nearly half. One other thing to keep an eye on is that Willock missed the final two games of the 22/23 season with a hamstring injury, from which he is still recovering. He is with the squad in pre-season, but if he isn’t fully fit to start the season he may face an uphill battle to displace one of Tonali or Joelinton.
Honorable Mention:
At the time of writing, there really aren’t any alternatives to Miguel Almiron (Gordon could potentially play here but is better suited to the left, and Jacob Murphy is a decent stand-in but not going to oust the Paraguayan from the starting eleven), but the fact that Newcastle have been connected to potential moves for Moussa Diaby and James Maddison signals the intent to find a replacement, or at least more adequate competitor, for the winger. The transfer window will remain open until after the season kicks off and our drafts are completed, so proceed with caution.
3 Question Marks
Not everything is crystal clear and predictable at Newcastle. These are 3 questions surrounding the Magpies that we’re grappling with this preseason. We’ll try to note whether or not (and how much) these questions are affecting our perceptions of Newcastle's fantasy assets.
Will Europe be a priority? - It's safe to say Newcastle weren't expecting to be preparing for a Champions League campaign this season, or even European football at all. Given the rapid nature of their ascent, they may not have the strength in depth to compete at this level and also keep their Premier League aspirations moving in the right direction. With some key positional battles across the pitch, it will be interesting to see how the manager chooses his squads when the European competition kicks off. Will he play his best squad there or use it as an opportunity to give them a break?
Will Trippier remain a top-10 fantasy asset? - It's rare for defenders to deliver first round value, but Trippier had the winning formula of commanding set piece duty and being on one of the best defensive teams in the league last season. He also started every Premier League game. All 38 of them. There are arguments to be made that there will be a reduction in each of these categories next season given Newcastle's dip in defensive form in the second half of the 22/23 season, the additional competition and the fact that Sandro Tonali is a very capable set-piece taker. It's unlikely that Trippier's share of sets will drop off even to an even split with Tonali, but 25-30% of dead ball situations going to the Italian is a distinct possibility, and one that would be seriously detrimental to Trippier's fantasy output. If the former Burnley and Tottenham fullback can repeat his 22/23 heroics again this season, it will be an incredibly impressive feat.
Is there any surprise factor left? - The Newcastle boss deserves a lot of credit for shifting his tactics from his early coaching days at Bournemouth -- where he played a bit of a reckless, all-out attacking style built on pace and directness -- to his more measured defense-first approach on Tyneside. That obviously earned him a lot of success last season, but stagnating tactically in the Premier League is a recipe for failure and opposition coaching staff may have already figured out how to deal with the young manager's tactics. It remains to be seen whether the squad he has available to him offers enough tactical flexibility to try something different when Plan A isn't working, or if they'll continue to struggle to turn situations where they're behind or level into wins.
Early-Season Fixture Difficulty
The way that teams come out the gate has big implications in EPL Draft. A red hot start creates red hot trade targets. A dismal start means plummeting player values and losses for your fantasy team. Check out our thoughts on Newcastle's early-season fixtures and our analysis of the fantasy implications they will have.
In the event you are debating between taking a Newcastle player and someone from just about any other team when you're on the clock in your draft, you'd probably be better off going with the other guy, at least if you are drafting for early fixtures. This opening run is just about as difficult as it gets in the Premier League, and with the potential exception of top-tier guys like Trippier and Isak you may be able to use the outcome of this opening run of fixtures to make some "buy-low" trade offers before the schedule softens considerably for gameweeks 6-10. With so much uncertainty around how the attacking positions will shake out, this is also a good time to do some scouting.
If you do end up with Newcastle players in your team from the start of the campaign, just remember to practice some patience with them if they're getting game-time but not necessarily delivering the points you expected across the opening 4-5 matches. It's a long season and there will almost certainly be players from this team who will make you regret dropping them after the opening month.
23/24 Newcastle Predicted Lineup
The following lineup represents our prediction for the most likely line-up for the long-term for Newcastle in the upcoming season. We can't account for injuries or new transfers, but this should provide a reasonable guide for who will be the preferred starters for the majority of Premier League matches this season (keep an eye on what Eddie Howe does for European rotation, though).
Early in the season, we could see Anthony Gordon preferred to Harvey Barnes and Elliot Anderson get the nod over either Joelinton (who is a slight injury doubt) or Sandro Tonali. There are also fitness concerns surrounding Fabian Schar, who could be replaced in the lineup by Jamaal Lascelles or potentially Matt Targett, with Dan Burn shifting centrally (though this seems unlikely).
More Team Previews: Arsenal | Aston Villa | Bournemouth | Brentford | Brighton | Burnley | Chelsea | Crystal Palace | Everton | Fulham | Luton | Liverpool | Man City | Man United | Newcastle | Nottingham Forest | Sheffield United | Tottenham | West Ham | Wolves
Check out our 23/24 Draft Kit for all the pre-season information you could ever need. We've got a Live Draft Aide, Draft Rankings, Team Previews, Cheat Sheets, Strategy Articles, Draft 101, plus so much more. Dominate your draft!
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