Welcome to The Draft Society’s team-by-team previews, a vital part of the 23/24 Draft Kit! These articles will provide a one-stop-shop for all the important Fantasy EPL themes from a Fantrax perspective. With players to watch, players to avoid, points projections and early season fixtures analysis, we've got it all covered. Our Draft Premier League Team Previews will help set you up to dominate your draft! It's time to take a look at Luton Town FC, the Cinderella story of the EFL. Let's dig into their 23/24 fantasy prospects.
Check back often! Our team previews will be updated throughout the summer as any new transfer, injury, or rotation developments come to light.
Check out our 23/24 Draft Kit for all the pre-season information you would ever need. Draft Rankings, Team Previews, Strategy, Draft 101. We've got it all!
Luton Team Preview 23/24
Check out our in-depth look at Luton's prospects for the new EPL season below. This information will form a key component to your draft prep and set you up to dominate your draft! Let's begin with a look at last year's numbers and see just how this team managed to defy all expectations in 22/23.
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Fantasy Flashback
Let's review how Luton players fared in 22/23, with an emphasis on their Draft Premier League fantasy assets. But, we'll also discuss any pertinent info regarding managerial tactics, formation, injuries, etc. What can we learn from their performance in the last campaign?
Overall Team Performance
It's been well-documented that Luton Town were not long ago in the National League - the lowest/5th division of English football - with nowhere to look but up. Fast-forward 9 years and they find themselves in the top flight, ready to host world-class players like Kevin De Bruyne at Kenilworth Road, which holds just over 10,000 fans. But let's caution against little-brothering Luton Town FC when we speak of them this season. They won promotion for a reason: they play an incredibly attractive brand of attacking football, refusing to sit back even when facing stout opposition. Luton get in their opponent's faces, never giving them a moment's peace.
So what did that look like in terms of numbers? Well, Burnley were the stand-out team last season in the Championship. Any stat category you care to mention was likely dominated by Burnley... except for several key categories that Draft PL managers may find quite intriguing. Luton Town ranked near the top of the Championship in clean sheets, tackles won inside the attacking third, crosses, aerial duels won, ball recoveries, and fouls committed. In fact, LTFC bested Burnley in every one of those categories except clean sheets, which Burnley nicked by 1. Why have I included fouls committed? All of these stats should paint a picture of a tenacious team who refuse to rest on their laurels. And, those with their thinking caps on will have noticed that (fouls committed aside), those stat categories equate to fantasy points!
As those stats suggest, Luton use the wings heavily and lean equally hard on their two towering forwards to corral and redirect crosses. The wing play, interestingly, doesn't actually incorporate wingers. Rather, Rob Edwards opts for a 3-5-2 formation, allowing his two wingbacks to bomb down the touchline and whip in dangerous balls. They're not all that defensively stout. They won't score all that many goals. Their main goal will be to cling to their Premier League status tooth and nail. Along the way, though, they may give us a couple of diamond-in-the-rough type players.
Player Performance
One constant in Luton's formation and tactics is the major use of wing-backs. When you sort last season's stats by xA (expected assists), you'll notice that James Bree, Alfie Doughty, and Cody Drameh all rank toward the top whilst still being classed as defenders. All three of these players held down the wingback role throughout the season, with Drameh replacing Bree, who was bought by Southampton in January. Bree had the most shots from free kicks on the entire team. Bree and Doughty posted the most key passes, crosses into the penalty area, and the 2nd and 3rd most assists (behind Morris). This team feasts on free kicks, which were also taken almost exclusively by the wing-backs.
The Luton strike partners in Carlton Morris and Elijah Adebayo contributed to the vast majority of the goals scored by The Hatters in 22/23. Adebayo scored 7 goals on 12.1 npxG (non-penalty expected goals), while Morris scored 20 goals on an npxG of only 14.2, though 1 of those goals was a penalty kick. In fact, that 1 penalty kick accounted for the only 1 Luton made all season. Morris ranks in the 95th percentile among FWDs in progressive passes and is equally impressive in other stat categories, as you'll see below. Adebayo also puts in an impressive amount of defensive work for a forward.
Finally, in the defense, spend any time with the numbers and you'll notice a trend: it's the Amari'i Bell and Tom Lockyer show. These two had over 2,100 touches of the ball each, with the 3rd ranked player totaling 1650. Lockyer is a monster when it comes to aerials and clearances, while Bell actually mixes it up all over the pitch. He'll surprise teams with his knack for shot-creating actions, progressive carries, and tackles.
Fantasy Forecast
Past is prelude, as they say. So, turning to the 23/24 season, we've got Luton player projections, 3 key players to keep an eye on, 3 players we're staying away from, 3 question marks surrounding the club at this moment, and an analysis of the Hatters' early-season fixtures.
23/24 Player Projections
Below, you'll find our season projections for Luton Town fantasy assets. Our projections are created using a number of contributing factors such as past performance, fixture difficulty ratings, anticipated minutes played, and more. PPS (Points Per Start) and ProjTotFPts (Projected Total Points) refer to Fantrax Default Scoring.
The above table is not going to be overly encouraging to anyone who thinks that they might want to snag some Luton assets at a discount on draft day. Clearly, our stats wizard @DraftLad's calculations don't have The Hatters faring too well in the Premier League. However, before you write these lads off completely, take a look at just the total fantasy points column. Notice Doughty, Morris, and Lockyer's totals at 230 or higher? Well, I'll remind you that 230 was the finishing mark for several underrated fantasy assets like Casemiro, Antonee Robinson, and Kenny Tete.
While it's true that most of these Luton Town players will be streamers at best, I would look at several of their assets late in a draft. Any player posting positive WAR literally means that they are better than your average replacement-level, waiver wire guy. Therefore, I like Doughty (obviously), Lockyer, and Morris.
3 Players to Watch
We've highlighted 3 players (and some honorable mentions) from Luton Town that we're keeping an eye on. Some players mentioned below may be sleepers. Some may be up-and-coming youngsters. Some may be vying for a spot in the XI. Whatever the case, we'll tell you why we're watching these 3 in EPL Draft Fantasy this year.
Alfie Doughty
Position: Midfielder
22/23 Points: N/A
22/23 Points Per Start: N/A
Recommended Draft Pick: ~125 (12 Team League: Round 10)
Analysis: Above, I've laid out the many statistical reasons why I like Doughty (pronounced like Doubt-y, by the way). Between his crosses, dribbles, free kicks, and general attacking involvement, he's going to have plenty of avenues leading toward fantasy points. There will be the occasional games when Luton get stomped by a clearly superior team and Alfie's Fpts will suffer. The saving grace, however, is the fact that he's classed as a midfielder and, therefore, won't suffer the negative points for goals against. Luton are on the verge of completing the signing of Ryan Giles from Wolves, who will offer direct competition to Doughty for minutes.
Carlton Morris
Position: Forward
22/23 Points: N/A
22/23 Points Per Start: N/A
Recommended Draft Pick: ~125 (12 Team League: Round 10)
Analysis: CAUTION!! Carlton Morris currently (at time of writing) has an ADP of 112, which puts him in Round 10. This represents a disparity between where he's being drafted and his projected points for the season. I was tempted to put him in the "3 to Avoid" category, but I do think he'll be serviceable in fantasy this year. And while I understand the fact that the forward pool is thin, forwards who averaged ~7.8 PPS last season were Brennan Johnson, Che Adams, and Antony. The point is this: Morris can do a job and round out your FWD line if you're stretched in that area, but do not take him at the current ADP. You'd be overpaying.
Tom Lockyer
Position: Defender
22/23 Points: N/A
22/23 Points Per Start: N/A
Recommended Draft Pick: Round 15 or 16
Analysis: With a tough matchup at Brighton to kick off the season, anyone drafting Lockyer is probably doing so because of his ghost point upside. He does rack up counting stats like aerials and clearances, so there's potential there for some decent scores. Just be sure to bench him against teams that don't utilize crosses into the box and against teams who score loads of goals. And, to be honest, with the blank gameweek in GW2 announced, there are probably other defenders late in your draft who would offer more immediate fantasy value.
Honorable Mention(s):
Tahith Chong: The injury-prone winger/midfielder has been confirmed as the record-signing for Luton Town at £5m, smashing their previous record of <£1m. He's an interesting name. Last season for Birmingham, he started 35 games, notching 4 goals and 5 assists. His 22/23 stats converted to Fantrax default scoring points leave him with 8.4 fantasy points per 90 and a very middling 6.3 ghost points per 90. Obviously, these numbers are suboptimal considering we can expect the competition to ramp up considerably in the Prem. Plus, a lot rides on where he's deployed in the Edwards formation. As we've seen demonstrated, usually the wing-back do most of the damage from the wings in this system. Well that change with Chong? I don't think so. But will he nick some set pieces off of Doughty? I'm also not too worried about that. Last season, he found himself squarely behind Bacuna on dead balls, including those in shooting range.
As mentioned, there aren't many other promising Draft PL prospects in this team. Adebayo could be a decent shout vs defensively weak teams, but you're hoping for a ton of aerials or a goal. And Bell could be an effective player in real life, but as you see from the graphic above, he doesn't excel in most of the categories that actually result in fantasy points.
Luton have completed the loan signing of Issa Kaboré from Man City, who primarily plays RWB and comes in to replace Drameh, whose loan ended at the end of the season and went back to his parent club, Leeds. He offers the same kind of directness and is an exciting young player. He spent last season on loan at Marseille.
Players to Avoid
It's not all sunshine and rainbows at Kenilworth Road. At least, not as far as Draft Fantasy Football is concerned. Below, we will also highlight fantasy assets that we're not so thrilled about. These are the 3 Luton players you might want to avoid come draft day.
Jordan Clark
Position: Midfielder
22/23 Points: N/A
22/23 Points Per Start: N/A
Recommended Draft Pick: Don't.
Analysis: There are several stat categories for The Hatters last season that you'll see Clark's name atop and shot-creating actions is one of them. However, despite his 99 SCAs last season, his xA over the course of 34 starts was a paltry 4.0 (or just .12 per 90). Midfielders (who don't play wing-back) quite simply aren't really involved in the attacking build-up or set pieces for Luton. Don't waste a pick there.
Defenders (until GW5)
Position: Defender
22/23 Points: N/A
22/23 Points Per Start: N/A
Recommended Draft Pick: Don't.
Analysis: As you'll see in the Early Season Fixture Difficulty section below, it's going to be a bumpy road for Luton early doors. Without a home match until GW4, with visits to the Amex and Stamford Bridge, and with a blank gameweek in GW2, we're avoiding almost all Luton assets, especially defenders. Lockyer's penchant for aerials and clearances may exclude him from this discussion. Regardless, there are better late-round options for defenders.
3 Question Marks
Not everything is crystal clear and predictable at Luton Town. These are 3 questions surrounding the Hatters that we’re grappling with this preseason. We’ll try to note whether or not (and how much) these questions are affecting our perceptions of LTFC’s fantasy assets.
Home Field Advantage - Kenilworth Road is a legendary ground, largely due to the fact that it's incredibly small, especially for a Premier League stadium. Famously, spectators must cross over residents' gardens just to enter the stands. It will be a bit of a shock for teams used to playing in stadiums that comfortably hold 50,000+. It's an intimidating place where players often feel like the crowd can reach out and touch them. The numbers bear out this advantage, too. In 22/23, LTFC's xG for away matches totaled 24.9. At home, that number skyrocketed to 33.3. This resulted in an xGD (expected goal difference) of +13.1 at home compared to +1.3 away. I think it's inevitable that Kenilworth gets into opposition heads this season, but the extent to which remains to be seen.
Add to Watchlist - The best way to approach Luton Town FC fantasy assets this season is by utilizing your watchlist. Add those mentioned in this preview and give it a few weeks to see what develops. However, we also understand the FOMO factor. Do any of these guys become set-and-forget fantasy stalwarts? Ethan Pinnock springs to mind as an example from 2 years ago. If you're nervous about missing out on any of the most promising names from Luton Town, grab Doughty, Lockyer, or Morris on draft day. Fair warning: you'll need to hold them longer than normal to get a true read on their fantasy potential. (See Fixture Difficulty section.)
Keeper Conundrum - Last season, Ethan Horvath played 44 matches for Luton on loan from Nottingham Forest. With Horvath between the sticks, Luton conceded the 3rd fewest goals in the Championship. Not only that, but he had the 4th highest save % and the 3rd highest clean sheet %. However, Horvath had the fewest shots on targets against and the fewest saves in the Championship. So, it would appear that it's actually Luton's defensive solidity and ball-winning proclivity that made Horvath look like one of the best keepers in the league. And Luton were keenly aware of that, as they have elected not to bring Horvath back to the club. It will be interesting to see who they bring in, as that could strengthen this squad even more defensively.
Early-Season Fixture Difficulty
The way that teams come out the gate has big implications in EPL Draft. A red hot start creates red hot trade targets. A dismal start means plummeting player values and losses for your fantasy team. Check out our thoughts on Luton's early-season fixtures and our analysis of the fantasy implications they will have.
The announcement of the GW2 blank was a hammer blow to those hoping to draft Hatters players. That home match vs Burnley was going to be quite telling as to whether or not we can even stream Luton players in favorable matchups. Now, when is the first true barometer match to gauge their season-long value? Probably GW4 against West Ham.
I was all for gambling on a Luton player before the blank gameweek announcement. But, here's a new plan: if you have your eye on a Luton player who doesn't start off tearing it up on the pitch, just give it a few weeks. You can probably get them for free in a couple weeks' time when frustrated fantasy managers drop them. Plus, between GWs 6 and 9, they play Wolves, Everton, and Forest (with Spurs sprinkled in there, too). That's a solid run. Pick up Luton players in GW5 if you want to be sure to get them in for that favorable run.
23/24 Luton Predicted Lineup
The following lineup represents our prediction for the most likely line-up for the long-term for Luton in the upcoming season. We can't account for injuries or new transfers, but this should provide a reasonable guide for who will be the preferred starters for the majority of Premier League matches this season.
The signing of Wolves youngster, Giles will most likely either push our most sought after fantasy prospect Doughty to a backup position or have him compete for minutes at RWB and at LWB with new signing Issa Kabore.
More Team Previews: Arsenal | Aston Villa | Bournemouth | Brentford | Brighton | Burnley | Chelsea | Crystal Palace | Everton | Fulham | Luton | Liverpool | Man City | Man United | Newcastle | Nottingham Forest | Sheffield United | Tottenham | West Ham | Wolves
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