Over the course of the Premier League season, the full team of Draft Society analysts (or as many as can be available) put together their respective lists of their top 150 players for the rest of the season, based on Fantrax Default Scoring. For this latest version of our Consensus Ranks, we're taking a look at which players are on the rise, which are on a downward trajectory, and which divide opinion.
Key Takeaways from October's Consensus Ranks
Even though there was only about a month between our last ranks and the most recent Consensus Top 150 Players, there's been some big shifts. Multiple factors come into play when determining how to rank players against one another, but some of the key contributors to large-scale changes are injuries (or returns to fitness), player form, managerial preferences and the remaining fixtures. That doesn't even account for extra competitions and the resulting rotation nightmares we're all subject to from time to time. In short, arriving at any sort of objective fantasy valuation for a player would be impossible.
Since that's the case, we aggregate the collective ranks across each of our analysts to arrive at our top 150, removing the highest and lowest rank to eliminate outliers on either side and using a score of 200 for anyone we haven't ranked in our respective lists. After a run-through to ensure we haven't missed anyone by accident, we make any final tweaks and then publish the resulting list for you to peruse and compare to your own, or to help you evaluate potential trade offers to your league mates. Now that you've gotten a peek behind the scenes, let's break down some of the trends coming out of the latest version of our rest-of-season rankings.
Players Climbing the Ranks
There are 61 players in our top 150 who have risen in rank from our last set of consensus ranks in September, plus an additional 21 players who were not even part of our top 150 last time around. We're still early enough in the season that this amount of movement is not a huge surprise, with more than three quarters of the season still to play. Here's a look at the top 10 risers from among those players who were included in our previous rankings:
There are a few players here, like Jack Harrison, Dominic Calvert-Lewin and Marcus Tavernier, whose ascent can primarily be attributed to actually being fit and available. More interestingly, there are big jumps for Tomas Soucek, Dan Burn and Willy Boly, none of whom were expected to be as effective for fantasy purposes as they have been in seasons past when they could consider themselves fantasy favorites.
Richarlison and Mykhailo Mudryk are the beneficiaries of long-term injuries to their respective teammates, Manor Solomon and Ben Chilwell, though one should not overestimate the Ukrainian's fantasy prospects as he hovers close to that 100+ rank where there may be better streaming options available week-to-week. Cole Palmer and Jeremy Doku are both players who have broken into the first-team picture sooner and more effectively than we expected and are making very strong cases to their respective managers that they should be more regular fixtures in the starting lineup moving forward. Doku, especially, has put the pressure on the recently healthy Jack Grealish, whose own rank has suffered as a result.
There are quite a few other climbers of note who are new to the Top 150 this time around. Luton's wingbacks were correctly called out as being major fantasy points contributors in our pre-season preview (hat-tip to Joe for this one), but Alfie Doughty (56) was frustratingly left out of the starting lineup for Rob Edwards' side in the early stages of the season and also suffered from the Hatters' blank in GW2. A 40-point DGW haul will do wonders for your ranking, but Doughty also looks like one of the best and most important players for Luton's hopes of survival this season and followed through with another solid score with 9 points against Tottenham in GW8. Just keep an eye on what Ross Barkley's return to the team does for his set piece involvement.
Antony (75) was unceremoniously dumped from the Red Devils squad and our ranks when assault allegations were levied against him, but was promptly reinstated in the top 150 once United made the decision to allow him back into the squad while investigations are ongoing (no charges have been officially brought against the Brazilian at this time). Nobody would have predicted that Ben White (83) would be the third-highest scoring defender after 8 gameweeks, but the Arsenal defender has done enough to convince us he deserves a place in our rankings (albeit still not anywhere close to the top 3 defenders rest-of-season (we've got him 17th).
Just behind White in our rankings, Simon Adingra (84) is one to watch given his impressive performances so far. Brighton are currently the league's highest goalscoring team, which makes their attacking players attractive prospects. The other side of that coin is the heavy rotation that Roberto de Zerbi has employed so far to keep his players fresh, with the Seagulls taking part in European football this season. The Ivorian has at least earned himself a place in the rotation and may see more time in the starting lineup with Pervis Estupinan currently injured (meaning Solly March filling in at LB) and Kaoru Mitoma due to take part in the Asian Cup in January, that is if he isn't off at the Africa Cup of Nations himself.
Matheus Franca (114) looks set to finally make his first appearance of the season for Crystal Palace in the coming weeks and could make a mockery of his ranking if he hits the ground running, but without any data to fall back on, we're tempering our expectations for the teenager for the time being. Finally, Kostas Tsimikas (148) edges his way into the top 150 given the shoulder dislocation Andrew Robertson suffered on international duty. Depending on the severity of the injury, the Greek fullback could vault up the standings or fall out altogether by the time we next update these ranks.
Players on the Decline
It stands to reason that with more than 80 risers that we'd have a significant number heading in the opposite direction. 64 players dropped at least one place in the overall ranks since September. Here's who fell the farthest:
Unsurprisingly, Ben Chilwell, Aaron Wan-Bissaka and Jacob Ramsey have taken a tumble down our ranks due to their injuries on the pitch, though AWB may make a return in the near future and subsequently change his trajectory.
Christian Eriksen, Beto and Said Benrahma have all slid down the depth chart for their respective teams and face an uphill battle to work their way back into favor in the absence of an injury to at least one of the players ahead of them. Everton's Portuguese striker may have the clearest path of the three to a place in the starting eleven given DCL's injury history as well as Sean Dyche's comments about exploring a two-forward system like he played when he was in charge of Burnley.
Prospects for a turnaround aren't as rosy for the likes of Alexis Mac Allister, Oliver McBurnie, Thiago Silva or Enzo Fernandez, each of whom has scored worse than we expected in the early stages of the season. We warned against drafting Mac Allister too early, but even we weren't expecting his fantasy output to be so dire. McBurnie and most of the rest of his Sheffield United teammates look out of their depth and the aerials alone aren't enough to offset the lack of any other points. Enzo has lost the small share of set piece duties he had early in the campaign and has returned to a deeper role in midfield, while his teammate Thiago Silva is still going strong in real life but hasn't delivered the goods in fantasy. Add Chelsea's woeful upcoming fixture run to the equation and it's easy to see why our analysts aren't feeling as positive about his output moving forward.
Ranking Discrepancies
Outliers in our rankings are bound to happen, and have famously been the case for at least one of our analysts over the past few seasons. But even when we take the extreme instances out of the picture there are still quite a few players we just aren't in the same ballpark for when it comes to predicting their rest-of-season value. Whether it's differing takes on how players will be reintegrated upon their return from injury, lack of faith in the data we've seen so far or perhaps even personal bias, let's dig into some of the biggest disagreements between our analysts, hearing from folks on either side of the ranking spectrum (highest rank 'H' and lowest rank 'L' from all analysts included in parentheses):
Kevin de Bruyne (H: 43, L: 95) / Christopher Nkunku (H: 48, L: 132) / Ivan Toney (H: 54, L: 116)
These three players all fall into a similar bucket, hence their categorization together. We're well aware of the fantasy potential for KDB and Toney, and Nkunku has been heavily touted as a star-in-the-making, making them painful but also justifiable long-term holds through their injuries (or suspension, in Toney's case). Each of them is edging closer to a return with each passing week, yet our ranks vary wildly. So, what gives?
KDB
Robbie (high) - We all know KDB offers tremendous fantasy value when he starts. The issue is his availability. Still, even projecting 10 Premier League starts over the course of the rest of the season at a reasonable (for him) 13 PPS equates to a 46th overall WAR value. I factored that "wins above replacement" value into my ranking, comparing KDB to other players as I went and felt that fantasy managers could find themselves preferring the City midfielder over the majority of players ranked 50th or below.
Ryan (low) - KDB, while a big name and tremendous player/fantasy asset, is not worth the hassle at the moment. It's hard to tell when he will recover from the nasty hamstring injury he picked up in the season opener. The 3-4 month prognosis has him returning sometime in December. That is still 2 months away, not to mention that he'll still need to get back to full fitness and will be eased in so he doesn't reaggravate it. Given his age and injury history, that is a real concern. There's a chance he won't be delivering fantasy points to your team until January - and even then, he is nearly 33, will likely have a deep FA Cup & CL run, and has to contend with Pep roulette. While he will surely produce when he does get starts - you may not get more than a dozen starts out of him ROS - roster spots are valuable, especially in the festive season. Burning one for months in the hope that KDB will single-handedly resurrect your team is not a great strategy. Let someone else deal with him.
Nkunku
Gavin (high) - Perhaps it's due to the research I put in for my scouting report of Nkunku in pre-season, but I'm a big believer that the French forward will be a fantasy favorite in the near future. Chelsea have sorely missed having a clinical finisher in their squad, as well as a second central attacking option to open up space for Nicolas Jackson (or whoever ends up playing up top moving forward). The Blues have a difficult run of fixtures in the short-term, but they start to clear up just as Nkunku should be coming into the first-team picture again in December. The injury history is a concern, but if we're ranking based on an assumption that players stay fit (which is how I put together my ranks), I think it's perfectly reasonable for him to return Round 4 value or better once he makes his return.
Sanjy (low) - I'm concerned about his immediate return from injury. After being out for so long, there's no guarantee he has 0 setbacks and is a nailed option as Poch might have found a solution to play without him by then. Given we're not in Europe, there might be limited opportunity for him to come straight back into the team. Still worth a stash in your roster though.
Toney
DraftLad (high) - Toney will be allowed to play again come January 16th, with 17 games left in the EPL season. Last season, Toney averaged 12.5 PPS and started about 90% of Brentford's games. Even if he has a game or two off the bench to begin his full reintegration OR gets a move to a bigger team (like Chelsea or Arsenal, which is still unlikely in January according to the oddsmakers) where he'll face more competition for starts, the top tier forward should start 70% games at least. If a middle-ground expectation is 12 starts at 12.5 PPS that comes out to a ~45th ranked projected WAR rest of season. Even if you subtract a little for the wasted bench space in the short-term, a 56 rank is reasonable, whereas a rank of116, among the likes of Bruno G., Gravenberch, and Beto, is absurd. If you don't like numbers, Toney is a stud forward (one of the best in the Fantrax game), he may join a better attack, and he's already training and playing in behind-closed-doors matches. He's worth the hold as he will provide significant value.
Genie (low) - Toney will not play until January and even then will need at least 1-2 games off the bench. We are looking at GW20-21 as a potential first start; that leaves us with less than half the season. I don’t believe Toney is worth a trade in and is only worth the last spot on your bench. If you are in a playoff league, Toney holds significantly more value. If not, you are losing valuable wins now by burning a roster spot, which could prevent you from winning a league title. In non-playoff leagues, I recommend trading Toney out. If he gets a move in January to Chelsea or Arsenal, he will end up rotating with the likes of Jackson and Jesus, who will provide serious competition to Toney, especially if Jackson truly hits form.
Willy Boly (H: 44, L: 105)
Ryan (high) - Big Willy Boly is a renaissance man. He hit lofty fantasy heights in that iconic Wolves team of the late 2010s but has been very average since - until now. He currently boasts 12 PPS - 30th in overall scoring and 5th amongst DEFs. His GPPS of 11.6 means he scores well despite conceding goals; his 8.5 points in a 2 nil loss to Man City is a testament to that. His erstwhile fantasy scoring proves this is unlikely a flash in the pan. While the return of another alpha dog, Felipe, could dent his scoring, this isn't a huge concern given how well Boly has been playing and the pony-tailed Adonis' injury issues. In a season largely devoid of set and forget DEFs, Boly stands out and warrants his relatively high ranking.
DraftLad (low) - It's a matter of unsustainable opportunity and production, in my opinion. He has started 7 of 8 games in the absence of Felipe, most of the time Niakhate, and part of the time McKenna. If that's not enough CB's in the picture for you, there's also Worrall and Murillo to compete in a team that looks to be moving more towards a 4 back with added quality in the mid and attack (as well as viable full backs, not just wing backs). Cue AFCON, the injured players' returns, and a spotty availability record from Boly. Given all that, I don't think it's reasonable to assume he will start as much as he has rest of season. On top of that his 12.3 PP90 and 12 GP90 do not appear sustainable as he scored 7.2PP90 and 6.6 GP90 last season in slightly more minutes for Forest. Sell high.
Odsonne Edouard (H: 58, L: 140)
Genie (high) - Edouard is a solid FWD3 with serious FWD2 upside. Palace are slowly getting back all their pieces, which means that Edouard will no longer be forced to play on the wing. He is a great asset through the middle and once Olise, Eze, and Franca are all up to speed in a few weeks, there will be no need for Edouard out wide. He is also the clear starter over Mateta and will see next to no rotation. If the Palace attack starts ticking, Edouard will feast.
Gavin (low) - Despite recently advocating for heavily goal-dependent strikers, the caveat was that they needed to score enough goals to offset their lack of ghost potential. I'm in the camp that Edouard is fool's gold (or fantasy fake, if you prefer to stick with the KPC vernacular) despite his decent overall scoring rank at the moment, and that he won't continue scoring at his current rate over the course of the season. At age 25, it's possible he's coming into his prime years as a striker, but I haven't seen enough evidence from him across his time in the Premier League to suggest he'll be worth much more than a stream in favorable fixtures. Three of his four goals this season have come against Sheffield United and Wolves. In games where he hasn't scored a goal, he has yet to deliver more than 6 points. The team is largely the same as in seasons past, so I'm not feeling confident that Edouard has suddenly become a valuable fantasy asset.
James Garner (H: 65, L: 136)
Sanjy (high) - Fixture run might be tough but it's hard to ignore an asset that has set piece duty and and easy route to Key Passes, which is heavily weighted in our default scoring system. He can easily notch a random assist and based on the last game in which Garner, McNeil, and Harrison all played together, his avg position was central, which I believe is his best position in the attack.
Totti (low) - While he has started well, Garner now has to contend with DCL, Harrison and McNeil all back fit and looking like regular starters. That will likely result in Garner being less involved in Everton's attack and also potentially losing out on some of the set pieces that he's taken so far.
Ansu Fati (H: 66, L: Not Ranked)
Totti (high) - The talent of the player has never been in question (he's been called the "new Messi"), but he was severely lacking match fitness when he showed up at Brighton after a long injury layoff with Barcelona. With Kaoru Mitoma and potentially Simon Adingra off to the Asian Cup and AFCON in January, he should have an opportunity to shine. Until then, he is part of the rotation for de Zerbi. But he's a good buy-low candidate ahead of their favorable run of fixtures, especially if you have other Seagull attackers on your roster.
Robbie (low) - Fati is an opportunity issue. I've yet to see anything to convince me that he will get over 30-40% starts. That's currently what Pedro is at - 3 of 8 starts - and I see Pedro ahead of him in the pecking order (and project his starts to move up to 50-ish%). At this point in time, Fati adds value to those on the Brighton attacking stack train, but beyond that he's just burning a hole on your roster.
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