Welcome to Genie's Corner for Gameweek 7! Here, I, (DraftGenie) will be providing you with my thoughts on all things draft! Each segment of Genie's Corner will focus on something specific and relevant to current events in the Draft Fantasy EPL world. Those of you who follow me on Twitter will know I tend to take a bold and differential approach to the draft game, which has led to many fantasy titles. In these articles I will be giving you my unique insights, bold takes, sage advice, and much more throughout the season.
Genie's Corner
Check out this weekly dive into the mind of our mercurial Fantrax EPL manager and analyst Draft Genie! Each week he provides his thoughts on strategies, players to watch, trades to push for, and much more!
Sunk Costs
A sunk cost in fantasy is basically when you are reluctant to drop/trade/get rid of a certain player or "stack" of players, despite them underperforming and/or not starting, because you invested a heavy amount of draft capital, or FAB, in them.
Prime Examples
The best example of this that comes to mind is when people are too stubborn or unwilling to accept a player they drafted in the early rounds does not retain that level of draft-day value anymore. While those who are trying to "buy low" may get frustrated with these managers, in the end, it usually only hurts the manager holding out for 110% of draft day capital. This season, quite a few players qualify - those drafted in the first 3 rounds that are simply not worth even 80% of that draft day capital right now. This includes Robertson, Mount, Sancho, Bowen, Mahrez, Coutinho, Grealish, Barnes, and Digne. All these players were drafted in the first 3 rounds of my Genie League Division 1 draft, and hold a lot less value today than they did a month ago. While I was pretty certain Mount wouldn't offer top 30 value (and he hasn't, and will continue not to), I am pretty surprised by some of the names on this list, particularly Mahrez, Sancho, and Robertson. There is always the classic "they will come good, I should hold" mindset....but what if they don't? In my opinion, holding and hoping, rather than trading out for less big name but more in form players, will most likely cost you a league title and potentially a top 5 finish.
How to Avoid
The best thing to do is to do research on the player you are concerned on. Look at their recent highlights, and underlying stats (even ones not scored such as shots, crosses, and dribbles attempted), sometimes a player just is simply having a bad spell (Son is a prime example, seeing nothing he does is working, but he still looks like he's doing the right things), other-times a role change, a new singing, or people thinking they will replicate last year's "purple patch" is causing that. My advice is to always throw out messages in a group chat saying you are open to offers for said player. Usually you will get at least 2-4 "low ball" offers or DMs for these bigger name assets, and from there you can work out a deal you are happy with. Even if it means taking only 70% of draft day capitol in the long run this trade could help propel you to a league title.
The other end of the spectrum is involved in players you traded in, or picked up off waivers - they had 1 solid 20+ pointer and now are dropping the classic goose eggs the past 2-3 weeks. In my opinion these are easy drops. (of course I'm talking about lower end players here). They served their purpose of that 20+ pointer but now seem to be very GACS dependent or just had a really good gameweek which was clearly a flash in the pan. If someone else wants to waste FAB on them, all the better for you considering your other targets will be cheaper.
NEVER GET ATTACHED TO PLAYERS!!!! That is the easiest way to avoid falling into the sunk cost dilemma.
What if the Player starts to do well?
Well, not much you can do if you don't roster him anymore other than wish him well. On the flip side, you were already happy with your trade to get rid of said player, and odds are the player(s) you brought in will outscore the player who has just started doing well here and there. No need to have seller's remorse instead just keep on rebuilding your squad to push for a league title with trying to trade in in form players and hidden gems.
Should you ever bench your "stars"?
Time to bench your "stars"
This is always a prime topic of debate. There is sometimes very logical reasoning to bench your star assets. They could be in poor form, have a late game and you have no backups, a tough matchup, or you have players in better form than them. At the end of the day I can only think of 1 really good reason to bench your starts, and that is when they are not in their team's XI. I think the only exceptions to this right now would be De Bruyne and Haaland. De Bruyne was recently benched vs. Nottingham Forest yet still managed 6 points off the bench which is on par or better than most streamers you could of picked up, and of course anyone of those KP or SOTs could have easily been a return.
Tough Matchup Advice
I am always fine with playing any of my top attacking players in a tough matchup (e.g., v Man City). No team has an impenetrable defence and this year we are seeing Liverpool and City keep less clean sheets than usual. So, for example, benching Kane this weekend could be a very bad idea. And those who benched Rashford last weekend surely paid a huge price despite Arsenal being the league leaders.
The one caveat here is defenders. They obviously will lose points when conceding goals, and when going up against Liverpool, Arsenal, Manchester City, Spurs, United, and even Brentford and Brighton this season, it is worth looking at form and recent defensive stability before starting your defenders in these matchups. You are always starting your elite defenders, such as the Liverpool group, Cancelo, Dalot, Reece, and Chilwell. But When it comes to players on top teams such as Emerson, Romero, Zinchenko, Malacia, and Koulibaly, it is worth reevaluating come the gameweek. For example, with Chelsea's current form, there is no way I am starting any of their CBs against Arsenal, United, Liverpool, City or Spurs. This weekend, Spurs play Manchester City, and honestly bar Romero and Perisic (classified as a Mid), I would not start any of their defenders, not even RWB Emerson. Obviously, these names are not the stars you took in the first few rounds but for a lot of people who didn't draft defenders early, they can be considered their DEF1/2s, making it a tougher call to bench them when you don't have quality backups or a decent amount of FAB to use on waiver wire claims.
What if they are in very poor form?
The cases of Bowen, Mount, Robertson, Son, and even Sancho are very instructive here. This group was taken early in drafts but not providing that type of value yet early in the season. Despite this poor start, is definitely the better play to start your underperforming studs instead of safer floor players. If Bowen finally gets himself a goal, it will probably be a 20+ point outing, which is more likely to win you a week than someone like Tyler Adams who can get you 6.5 points just because he has a solid floor of tackles.
While you should probably persist with the players above, I am fine with churning assets you drafted in the 5th-8th rounds. McGinn, Buendia, Lingard, and McNeil. These players all have a ceiling of some sort, but they are very much form players. McGinn, especially, is even struggling to produce the floor that made him such a high draft pick. I am more than okay benching these mid round assets for players picked up off the waiver wire that are in better form, have better matchups, or have a high floor with which to surround your boom/bust players. The best plan of action with these players, though, is to "sell low". I know this may sound crazy but they are costing you more than helping you. Who knows if they will ever return to form....and even if they do, they were taken in the "mid-rounds" for a reason - they aren't among the top dogs. Someone out there will believe they are buying low on these guys, but will become frustrated within a week or two and either be looking to reship them out or potentially just drop them. If you can get back a decent chunk of FAB or a solid DEF2/in-form player, then I would definitely make those deals. You can look to target players such as: Solanke, Romero, Almiron, and Thiago Silva. If you only want FAB to get a free roster spot, look to ask for around 15-20 FAB but settle for between 7-10 FAB. It will give you enough budget from which to make 2-3 decent streamer pickups + you get a free roster spot for when rotation season is in full swing....which is right about now.
Gameweek 7 Advice
Trade in Maddison, Vardy, Barnes, and Tielemans
Leicester are probably in the worst form we have seen them in years, and managers will be getting very frustrated with their assets (unless you randomly streamed Daka/Kelechi this weekend). Now is the time to pounce. You will have the odd manager holding and hoping. But after 6 gameweeks more often than not they will be happy to entertain an offer. I myself have traded in Maddison in the IGL, giving up Eze and Demarai Gray. While this trade lost me 2 set and forget midfielders who will be 8ish PPM, I bring in a midfielder who still has a chance to be a 12PPM output type player. I think both sides benefited from this trade, but I always prefer to make the high upside play, which in this case is getting Maddison.
I firmly believe the Leicester attack will sort itself out sooner rather than later, and they have a pretty decent schedule. They have played against Chelsea, Arsenal, United, and Brighton within their first 6 games, which has made for a difficult start. They now come up against Villa, Spurs, Forest, Bournemouth, Crystal Palace, Leeds, and Wolves. Most of these can be seen as winnable games, and the attack will surely look to put some goals away. Vardy has seen his minutes decrease, and could face a quick spell on the bench with Daka looking very sharp in the loss to Brighton. If that happens, I still believe he is a prime trade in target as he is one of the best finishers in the league, and is mainly struggling due to the lack of service rather than his lack of quality. The midfield of Barnes, Maddison, and Tielemans have all shown their quality this season but are very much struggling to maintain consistency, which will frustrate a lot of managers. I believe Tielemans and Barnes can end up offering MID2/3 value and Maddison still has top 5 midfielder potential in him.
I would be looking to ship out in form players or more consistent assets to try and bring in some of these Leicester players on a low.
Drop/Trade Out those Villa attackers
Yes, Villa have been slightly better than Leicester, but despite that decent showing vs. Manchester City I really don't have much hope for any of their attacking assets. They all seem very return dependent, and the midfield is just a mess, with heavy rotation and early subs. Watkins, Buendia, Coutinho, McGinn, and even Bailey are not worth rostering despite a decent set of fixtures. In smaller leagues, all bar Watkins are easy drops. Even in deeper leagues, if you have a solid team, I am happy dropping the midfielders given the plethora of decent streaming options on the waiver wire. Am I contradicting myself when I say "start your studs", but tell you to drop/ship out Coutinho? No, he is not a stud, at least not on this Villa side clinging onto some imaginary Gerrard and Coutinho linkup masterclass. He was drafted way too early as a MID1-2; he should have been taken, in stead, in the middle rounds, and he should be treated as such. He lacks upside in this Villa side that doesn't score many goals and will likely be in a relegation battle come the end of the season. Luckily for you, you can probably offer him out to a Liverpool fan, or someone who just likes to hoard the "big names" - look for the manager still rostering the likes of Kai, Ronaldo, Walker, and/or Lingard. There is value to be had even if it is simply shipping him out for FAB.
With Buendia and McGinn, you will have a much tougher time finding value. I am more than happy to give Buendia one last chance vs. Leicester. But if he doesn't start or performs similar to those on the waiver wire, I strongly encourage you to drop him if you can't find a trade market for him. Watkins will still appeal to those who are struggling to field forwards every week. there is probably someone in your league running with just Son or Kane, and has a FWD2 of Jimenez/Guedes....that is the manager to target. The same goes for Bailey, who has proven very frustrating to roster despite some good cameos.
The End of Nottingham Forest Defenders?
Dean Henderson was a revelation the first few weeks of the season. However, he has now posted back to back negatives, including in a very favourable matchup vs. Bournemouth. All of the Forest defenders have also struggled in the last few games. Even with regard to Neco, it is very concerning that Gibbs-White is taking almost every set piece now. Neco needed that penalty assist to crack the positives this week vs. Bournemouth. Nottingham Forest come up against Leeds, Fulham, Leicester, Villa, and Wolves in their next 5, which are all games you think you would be happy trotting out the likes of Cook, Lodi, Neco, Henderson, and potentially even Cook/McKenna/Boly.
For me, I would consider Leeds basically a last chance saloon for all defenders not named Neco. Despite Leeds being able to score vs. anyone, I still would expect some decent returns from my Nottingham Forest defenders/keeper. Lodi has looked decent through the eye test, but hasn't scored in the positives in his 2 appearances. Another poor outing, and you should consider him an easy drop. While most people rostering Henderson will harbor some sentimental value given he likely helped win you a GW or 2 singlehandedly earlier in the season, he can also become an easy drop. I would rather look to stream the spot with De Gea, Pickford, Bazunu, Guaita, and even Leno with low roster percentages. If you can deal out Henderson and Lodi in package deals or ship them out for some FAB, even better. Regarding Neco I would look to package him for a bigger deal, maybe throwing him in with say Eze, Olise, or Eriksen in an attempt to get Maddison.
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