Welcome to a new segment in The Draft Society library. Here, I, (DraftGenie), will be providing you with my thoughts on all things draft! Each segment of Genie's Corner will focus on something specific and relevant to current events in the Draft Fantasy EPL world. Those of you who follow me on Twitter will know I tend to take a bold and differential approach to the draft game, which has led to many fantasy titles. In these articles I will be giving you my unique insights, bold takes, sage advice, and much more throughout the season.
Genie's Corner
Check out this weekly dive into the mind of our mercurial Fantrax EPL manager and analyst Draft Genie! Each week he provides his thoughts on strategies, players to watch, trades to push for, and much more!
Check in with Free Agents FC
For those who may have forgotten. This season I have attempted to do the unthinkable, win a league with no draft picks. This experiment is done in a 12 team league consisting of Twitter managers of solid pedigree. During the draft I took 16 reserve type players, and agreed to have a FAB budget of 0. Post draft I picked up 16 players from the waiver wire to start the season, going for a mix of upside and stability, and have tried to get as many wins as possible. The end goal here is to finish in the top 6.
Team Performance
At the time of writing Free Agents FC sits 11th in the table with a 1-3 record but 9th in Fpts for with 374 points in 4 gameweeks. While not the start I hoped for, I do still believe this experiment can come good. Rodrigo, March, and Ben Davies have been my 3 set and forgets making great starts to the season. Unfortunately, there have been a lot of hits and misses within the squad, such as early season punts of Dele Alli, and Hudson Odoi wasting valuable roster spots the first few weeks. Each week my goal is to score 90+ points, and hope that can be enough to just squeak out a win. So far I have had scores of: 93.75, 98.75, 101.5, 80, all are pretty respectable considering this team didn't get a single draft pick! A bench-mare in week 3, could of ended differently if I had started Aaronson and Almiron, which would have seen the team at a 2-2 record. Since this is being written during Gameweek 5 below is the lineup currently trying to give Free Agents FC their 2nd win.
Strategies
It's tough to stick to just one strategy for the whole season in this kind of experiment, especially when you currently sit 11th in the table. For the first few weeks I have tried to bank on clean sheet stacks, with Ben Davies + Sanchez providing good value, but Pickford and Mykolenko failing me well almost every week. I have decided to try and stick to just 1 clean sheet stack at least the next couple weeks with the Davies + Sanchez/Romero combination while Spurs are in good defensive form. Adding to that will be 2-3 defenders who face either opposition with struggling attackers or those who could potentially rack up 7-10 ghost points. It seems these players are getting hard to find, but there are options with the likes of Cook, Martinez, and Bella Kotchap all on the wire.
In the midfield I try to start at least 1-2 "safer" options rotating the likes of March, Iwobi, Onana, Schlupp, Partey etc. and surround them with the more boom or bust players like Almiron and Aaronson. Each week I look to pick up at least 1 new midfielder to either hold or start and see how he produces, if he looks like he can offer value for the next 2-4 games I will hold him, if not then he's an easy drop to the waiver wire. Onana was this weeks get with a good matchup in gameweek 5 as well.
In the forward line with Rodrigo being a set and forget, and me recently bringing in Brennan Johnson I try to roster 3-5 forwards at all times currently with Che Adams, Jimenez, and Adama to partner these two. This allows me flexibility based on matchups, lineups and form to try and start 2 strikers that have the best chance at getting 10+ points. Usually with a goal or 2 from my forwards I can look comfortably to close to 90+ points for that gameweek with the stability I have started in the other positions.
Long Game vs. Short Game
It's always tricky to decide to play the long or short game. Right now I am in the mindset, of just trying to a win each week, and not really thinking about the long run. That means dropping players (especially defenders), with poor schedules in the next 3-4 weeks. Mainstays like Davies, Romero, and Varane will probably remain on the squad in tougher runs, but will be on the bench. Having a short leash on players in my opinion is the best way to approach this experiment. Not getting to attached to a certain player for that random 20 point outing that won me the week, but dropping them for say a shock start for someone playing Bournemouth, or for a defender with 3 easy matchups in a row that could score 10+ in each of those weeks. Obviously having a bench of 5 players helps hold some of the more high upside players like Rodrigo, and Johnson, but when it comes to the steady midfielders I am willing to churn them in and out with no second thought. A good example is Schlupp, great first 2 weeks, then sort of fell off, he was easily dropped without thinking about it. Being able to punt on 5+ new players each week also gives me a much higher chance of hitting gold with just one of them. Which is all that I would really need if the rest of the pickups can put up a solid 6-8 points that week.
FAB Wars
What Are They?
A "FAB War" is usually what happens just before a waiver wire run when new signings are up for grabs especially as we get closer to the end of the transfer window. You will usually see a higher than average number of trades happen within 4-5 minutes of the waiver processing time as people try to keep their cards close to their chest, and prevent other managers from having any time to react. I remember one league last season where there were 3 trades within the last 45 seconds before waivers clear, and one manager managing to somehow get exactly 3 FAB more than the next highest manager to win the claim for Ronaldo. The other 2 managers who traded top assets to get FAB were left a little distraught knowing they sold top 30 players for a chunk of FAB with no one exciting to use it on. And this is the risk with entering a FAB war. Usually I really prefer to be on the side sending away my FAB even if it's all of it to get the more "secure" player and not risk a last second trade causing me to lose out on a new signing.
The Best Strategy
Usually pulling off a trade involving FAB can be quite difficult especially in twitter leagues, with in my opinion, the majority of managers wanting to send away FAB as opposed to receive it. I have found that offering FAB predraft for a 2nd-4th round pick actually has a decent amount of success especially with the transfer rumour mill in full swing, and it really helps you add another quality pick to your team.
Post draft I usually look to ship my full FAB amount, usually you won't find anyone interested in small chunks of it unless its for a player they literally just picked up off the wire. If that doesn't work then I try to be somewhere in the middle. Can I ship out 60-80 FAB for a set and forget round 5-7 type player? If so Im more than happy to do that deal, while on the flip side looking to ship out players slightly lower than that to regain 10-20 FAB. Okay, on first read this may seem very confusing so I will use some player examples to break it down. Let's say you are close to getting a deal over the line to bring in Demarai Gray for 50-60 FAB, he would probably slot right into most midfields as a MID3-4, which is a perfect find in deeper leagues given the lack of options on the wire. Once that deal looks to be set and done, you look to ship out one of your lesser mids such as: Rice or Gibbs-White for 15 FAB. Basically through two deals you managed to upgrade a MID6/7 to a MID3 by only losing around 35-40 FAB. In my opinion that is a massive win in the trade market, and will really help your team.
These kinds of trades are much easier to get across, since the stability of Rice will interest some managers and since he may be slightly better than whatever is on the wire you can probably get that amount of FAB for him. While Gray isn't exactly racking up insane points but has MID2 upside, and has the talent especially when DCL returns to offer much better value than Rice. Post-draft this is usually the best way I can recommend approaching trades and FAB wars. You don't fully get involved in them, but just enough to get some good deals through. Also with you still having maybe 30-40 FAB remaining you may be able to get lucky and spend some on a new singings such as Isak or Guedes if they slipped through the higher bidders.
Seller's/Dropper's Remorse
Personal Ones
So early into the season, people can have thin patience and sell low on a higher draft pick, or even drop them. We all know my recent takes on Raheem Sterling, and how I sold him/dropped him in all of my leagues. Despite the absurd and uncalled for DMs received over those takes, I still hold true to my word I was happy to get rid of him. Could I have gotten more value after those 2 goals vs. Leicester, and his good display vs. Southampton? Absolutely, but what's done is done, and I still don't believe in the player being a FWD1 asset after seeing Chelsea's opening 4 games. In addition, following my own advice I'd much rather roster players I enjoy watching play the sport, and can cheer for. A season isn't won or lost on 1 week of good form, but I much prefer the moves and assets Sterling allowed me to bring in to help me push for league titles.
A big one of mine is losing Eze in a few leagues. The dude is cooking, and looks like he could offer lower end MID1 value. He is on almost every set piece and is just gliding with such ease in that midfield. I sold him in a mega deal to get De Bruyne in a league, who I am obviously very happy to have, but wish I ended up pushing to keep Eze and exchanging him with another player or two instead.
Advice to Avoid Future Remorse
The best way to avoid "remorse" is to try and ensure you get proper value even if you are "selling low". You may have a hard time determining proper value, especially if it's an elite player seriously underperforming, such as the current situation with Son. The best advice I can give is to do a trade that makes you happier about your team, even if you only get 80% of value. For underperforming round 1-2 assets getting a player with round 4-5 value and another player with round 5-7 value that you enjoy cheering for is a win for me.
Additionally, being "patient" to an extent especially if a certain player has already shown they will be a good fantasy asset this season. This advice is more useable in the middle of the season, especially when elite players enter poor runs of form, which inevitably will happen for some. Without a doubt managers in your league will look to pounce on big names in poor form here, but unless you are getting close to 95-100% of their actual value, I would recommend holding, or if your team is desperately in need of a certain position especially with the shallow forward pool.
Gameweek 6 Advice
Make "Upside" Pickups on Friday
We are in the midst of a very busy period for EPL teams, especially those in Europe. We will see them have basically 2 games a week for the next 2 weeks, meaning there will be rotation. There could be a decent amount of rotation on the weekend, for teams that have used the same group of players basically all season. No manager will want to deal with muscle injuries this early in the season, so expect rests for even the best of the best. There will be players who have been dropped by fantasy managers due to their lack of starts, and managers needing to try and win a close game and thinking short term over long term, especially in a midweek panic drop. On Friday when waivers clear all the hype will be on any new signings that are still up for grabs, but a lot of these upside players will slip through the thinking of many managers and either go for less than 5 FAB, or even slip completely through the waiver run. Some players that come to mind here include: Pulisic, Richarlison, Aribo, Doherty, and Smith Rowe, as well as others I am surely missing.
Going "hand and hand" with this bit of advice is to NOT make panic drops. Especially since rotation is to be expected in this busy schedule vs. your player actually being dropped from the XI for other reasons. Imagine how silly it would be if you drop Jack Harrison in a panic just to pick up and field Ndidi for his 6.5 points that don't even help you win the gameweek. You would of lost a MID1 type player just to try and win 1 gameweek out of 38 so early in the season. Also, playing a top asset from the bench may not be the worst idea, if you are in a bind, but if you have the options I would bench basically any player except Salah and De Bruyne if they are not in the XI.
Pickup Southampton Assets
Southampton haven't had the best start to the year, but will be coming off a high after that 2-1 victory vs. Chelsea who have been very poor this year. Now the Saints enter a very nice run of games coming up against Wolves, Brentford, Aston Villa, and Everton which are all games they could easily win. Their attacking assets such as Aribo, Elyounoussi, Armstrong(s), and Adams will be available on some waiver wires, and are worth starting if they are in the XI for Southampton. Their defence is still a wildcard, but Perraud, Bella Kotchap, Walker-Peters and Salisu are all worth streams if you are in need of a DEF3/4. Fellow colleague Gavin Wright has already mentioned in his Sleepers article from last week how Bazunu has yet to have a negative score despite conceding in every game. He could very well be a great set and forget keeper over the next 4 games, and even potentially when they go up against Manchester City. I do expect Saints to continue to rotate through their attackers, but streaming whoever is in the XI over the next few games isn't a bad strategy.
Have as Many "Backups" as Possible
Building on the earlier point about rotation being a real issue this weekend, it's never a bad thing to have backups in the later games. Arsenal vs. Manchester United is the last game of the weekend, and no doubt there may be 1-2 surprise starters/benchings. With that said holding onto say Fred or Maguire or even Tomiyasu as your 16th player is a great strategy. It will give you flexibility for all of the Sunday games, if there are surprise benchings in the earlier ones for your assets, or let you quickly pivot from any of your United/Arsenal options that are not starting. The only issue is you will need to be very "quick on the button" once those lineups are released, because I can promise you at least 3-5 of your league mates will be refreshing for those team sheets with their fingers ready to pickup Elanga for his surprise start when Antony isn't in the XI. The only other game on Sunday is Brighton vs. Leicester. It kicks off about 2.5 hours before the United game. If you are already seeing leaks, and hearing a certain player in the late game hasn't travelled with the team or is looking set to be benched, it wouldn't be a bad idea to stream a player from this game. Surely there will be at least 4-7 players from that game that are available to stream, and having the "bird in hand" might be your best bet depending who you are benching in that late game. Obviously it is worth risking the likes of Jesus, Bruno, Martinelli, Rashford etc. but if you hear Dalot or Xhaka for example aren't in the XI, then I am in the camp of starting a player you know is starting that day in the early game.
For all the latest from The Draft Society, follow @Draft_Society on Twitter!
And for more in-depth and exclusive resources, become a member of The Inner Circle.
Comments