Welcome to Genie's Corner for Gameweek 15! Here, I, (DraftGenie) will be providing you with my thoughts on all things draft! Each segment of Genie's Corner will focus on something specific and relevant to current events in the Draft Fantasy EPL world. Those of you who follow me on Twitter will know I tend to take a bold and differential approach to the draft game, which has led to many fantasy titles. In these articles I will be giving you my unique insights, bold takes, sage advice, and much more throughout the season.
Genie's Corner Gameweek 15
Check out this weekly dive into the mind of our mercurial Fantrax EPL manager and analyst Draft Genie! Each week he provides his thoughts on strategies, players to watch, trades to push for, and much more!
Strategy Discussion
2:1 and 3:1 Trades
It seems like everyone these days only want to do trades where they give two or more players and receive fewer players in return (but they get in the "better asset". It's a weird line of thinking that I personally don't understand. Granted, I do see the appeal of having a better asset & additional bench/roster spots. But if that's the only trades you are willing to do, then unfortunately you won't get many done. The same goes for those managers who believe they need to "win outright" the trade (yes, a manager used these exact words in trade negotiations with yours truly earlier this season...).
At the end of the day, there is a massive benefit to both sides of a 2:1 or 3:1 trade. Let's discuss the "less" popular side first. Receiving more players means you have to drop assets from your bench, and I hate to break it to you but unless you are in a 2 team league there will be at least 2-3 droppables on your bench. You lose maybe 1 spot for flexibility? Not sure I see the big deal here, especially if you get near guaranteed starters. What I am seeing now in Twitter leagues is that those giving up 2-3 players for one are giving a lot more value that what that player is worth just to clear roster spots and get in the so-called better asset. Yes, even I am guilty of this, but I don't think it's always the smartest move, unless you have a bit of a longer term plan in mind from this trade....but we'll save that topic for another article.
I do believe selling the better asset can get you more value; 2-3 nailed on starters, definitely better than streamer level, sounds appealing to me. If you persist with only wanting to get the better asset, then you better have a lot of depth in your team. Giving up 2-3 top players for 1 slightly better player will harm your team more than help it. For example, if you give up something crazy like Maddison, Zaha, and Rashford for just De Bruyne, then I'm sorry to say you have thrown away your league title, unless you roster at least 2-3 players better than these boys (ignore me if so) and you can master the waiver wire. Basically you are entering KDB + streamers + some mid-tier assets level. Every week you will need KDB to get you at least 20-25 points and your streamers to chip in for 8-12 to make this trade worthwhile. Meanwhile, on the other side, we have seen all of the players I have listed go for 20+ on their day with ease. That's why if someone offered me that for KDB, I'd snap their hand off. Honestly, I might even take Maddison, Rashford and a MID3/FWD3 type player. Spreading the risk is a better option unless you have a team filled with 2-4 top 20 players.
Making Trades Over the World Cup
This is going to be a topic of debate over the next few weeks as a long break approaches. Managers will be eager to see some sort of Fantrax action, with trades being the only real ability to scratch that itch. My advice is: don't bother trying to make trades over the World Cup break unless you are already in negotiations before the last gameweek and just finalizing the last details. Some managers may be desperate to just get something done to cure their boredom of no fantasy EPL, and overpay or make deals that ruin their roster. Just don't, enjoy the time off Fantrax. Sure, you can make the odd pickup here and there if you see someone get hurt in the World Cup or a player is rumoured to be getting a loan move as we approach the January window. Other than that, I really don't think it is worth overthinking your fantasy teams. The more you think about it, the more you will want to tinker and change, and that isn't always a good thing.
Also, don't make rash trades over this period based on World Cup performances. This is a completely different competition, different stakes, and players are in different teams & under different managers/systems. World Cup form, as a result, doesn't always carry over to club competition. Expect some unexpected players to rise, and some top players to perform very poorly. Again, DO NOT overreact. Sure, it might be great to see Kane win the Golden Boot if you roster him, but even if he only scores 1 goal all tournament, that doesn't mean he won't do the business for Spurs on his return. Think of how poor of an attacking manager Southgate is...apply that logic to all fantasy assets. Enjoy the time off fantasy and just revel in the world's sport played at the highest level without needing to refresh your phone every 45 seconds to see if a certain player got that much needed tackle.
Gameweek 15 Advice
Fulham Attackers vs. Manchester City
Mitrovic, Pereira, and Willian are in fine form, and Fulham attackers are really ticking in both fantasy and on the pitch. Unlucky not to win the game vs. Everton, they still created a ton of chances, especially from set pieces, with the likes of Ream and Mitrovic the key targets. City is always a tricky fixture when deciding if you should bench/start certain assets. I am staying far away from Fulham defence in this one, maybe I'd consider playing Leno but even that is a bit of a stretch. I am more than happy to start Andreas, Willian, Mitrovic and even Reed. All four have been racking up great points, and there is every chance City concede some chances to them and potentially even a goal or two in what has the making to be a 4-2 type of game. We saw this last week with Maddison and Tielemans still getting above 7 points each (13 and 7.5, respectively). There is no reason these boys can't do the same with a few set pieces and some ghost points through headers, tackles, and interceptions. If Willian if your FWD4 and you have 3 forwards with better matchups, then sure, bench him, but Mitrovic and Andreas are borderline set and forget players at this point.
What to do with Sancho?
In the first edition of Genie's corner, I issued a clear warning about Sancho. I predicted that Eriksen would outscore him, his place in the XI was at risk, and that he would be very goal dependent even if when he does start. All of these fears have come true. He is entering droppable territory with him being completely out of favour in recent games with ETH. Even a poorly behaved Ronaldo getting starts over him. Sancho failed to even come on as a sub the last 2 games, and will need a huge swing to regain a spot in the XI or let alone valuable minutes. As of now I am going to say you should hold him until the World Cup, as there are only 2 more gameweeks and you surely have worse players you can drop from your bench if need be. If he isn't seeing an uptick in gametime a week or two post World Cup, which he probably won't be headed to, then I would definitely consider dropping him if no one wants to trade him in. It is sad to see a player of his talents fail to perform at a high level, but I truly believe ETH is doing what is best for Sancho's career by taking him out of the spotlight until he believes he can replicate some of the magic that made United so eager to get him in. This is not the end of Sancho at United, but this might be a very frustrating season for fantasy managers who roster him.
Chelsea Defence
What an abysmal display last weekend. Two own goals and four conceded, but how can we blame poor Kepa? His teammates really left him out to dry, and as a fan of his I really hope Potter doesn't lose the faith in the guy who has by far been his best player since he took the reigns. This defence seriously misses the likes of Koulibaly. Fofana, Reece, and an in-form Chilwell. The hope is post World Cup they will be back. Chalobah has had a few good moments in his starting spell, but I assume that comes to an end soon. Having said all that, I'm not sure I would do anything rash and drop your Chelsea defenders. Chalobah and Cucurella are the exceptions here. In my opinion, both are droppable given their tough fixtures before the World Cup and their uncertainty of starts after it. This weekend, though, I am gladly benching every Chelsea defender, EXCEPT Kepa if he starts, and maybe Azpilicueta if he gets back in at RB. Chilwell at LB/LWB is another one I am happy to start as a DEF3 for some attacking upside. The rest of the backline is a must bench given the form of Arsenal attack, even if Saka is still injured (he is back training so he should be back). Newcastle the following week won't be much easier but playing more of your Chelsea defence is less scary in that matchup despite their recent success.
Genie's Streamers
Kurt Zouma vs. Crystal Palace - Zouma comes up against an inconsistent Palace attack. Zouma will consider himself very unlucky to have not scored in back to back games after an incredible save from De Gea. Zouma usually offers a steady floor thanks to his dominance in the air, but also a major attacking threat from set pieces. Zouma has 2 good games until the World Cup and could offer solid DEF2 value until the break.
Joe Aribo vs. Newcastle - A near mainstay in Genie's streamers. Aribo has shown he can ghost by filling up the stat sheet with both defensive and attacking stats. He also offers a solid attacking threat playing high up for the Saints. This will be a tough matchup against a strong Newcastle team, but they will potentially be missing Schar and Joelinton (suspended), which might make it a closer game. Aribo offers MID4 value, and could help you win your GW if he gets another goal.
James Justin vs. Everton - A disappointment for managers who drafted him in the mid-late rounds so far, but coming up against a team that is confused about how they want to play. Keep a clean sheet or outscore their opponents? I do expect Leicester to win here, and can't see Everton scoring more than a goal if even that. Justin scored 7.75 ghosts vs. City - a similar output with the chance of a clean sheet or an attacking return gives him upside DEF3 value.
Fred vs. Aston Villa - A favourite of mine when he starts, Fred has offered it all over his United career. On top of his disappointments, and "vibes" with long missed manager Ole, he has shown he can be a very solid squad player for United when called upon. Bruno is suspended this week so there is a strong chance Fred gets the nod over McTominay, with Eriksen pushing further forward. When called upon he has done a decent job for Ten Hag and fantasy managers. He should get the chance to try and get some attacking returns as well, making him a solid MID5 streamer IF he starts. Be sure to have cover in case he doesn't end up getting the nod.
Harry Maguire vs. Aston Villa - Maguire was incredible in his return to the starting lineup, barely putting a foot wrong in the win vs. West Ham. He made some key clearances and blocks late in the game to ensure United got the win, and should get the start over Lindelof on the weekend, as he tries to cement his spot in the World Cup squad. I do think Maguire can save his United career after that long spell on the bench and out of the media spotlight. I am hoping the benching of Sancho has a similar effect on him. Maguire is a solid DEF2 streamer against a poor Villa team. But if Lindelof starts, I would look elsewhere for a streamer given his poor scoring.
Lucas Moura vs. Liverpool - A bit of a wildcard here, but we are going based on the poor form of this Liverpool defence. Take away that City performance and this team looks like prime candidates to be involved in a relegation battle. Spurs honestly aren't that much better given their park the bus strategy, but that may play into their favour against this awful Liverpool defence. Moura & Kane (Son is likely out) on the counter will be a serious problem for Klopp, and with Moura's pace I expect him to start and offer the potential upside of a return. He is a MID5 streamer this week given the matchup, but worth a start if you need an upside differential. It is the last game of the GW so it's risky depending on him, so have some cover if need be.
For all the latest from The Draft Society, follow @Draft_Society on Twitter!
And for more in-depth and exclusive resources, become a member of The Inner Circle.
Comments