Welcome to a new segment in The Draft Society library. Here, I, (DraftGenie), will be providing you with my thoughts on all things draft! Each segment of Genie's Corner will focus on something specific and relevant to current events in the Draft Fantasy EPL world. Those of you who follow me on Twitter will know I tend to take a bold and differential approach to the draft game, which has led to many fantasy titles. In these articles I will be giving you my unique insights, bold takes, sage advice, and much more throughout the season. This article will feature everything you need to know as you prepare for your drafts this summer and as we get closer to the start of another EPL season. Click here for details on how you can access our 22/23 Draft Kit. Let's get it.
Check out our 22/23 Draft Kit for all the pre-season information you would ever need. Draft Rankings, Team Previews, Strategy, Draft 101. We've got it all!!!
Genie's Corner - Draft Season Advice
Transfer Window - Does it Change Anything?
The transfer window is in full swing. Top clubs like Manchester City and Liverpool are only growing stronger, while those competing to push into the top 2 are adding depth and key starters. When it comes time for the draft, a lot of managers are faced with "shiny new toy syndrome" and overdraft new signings. This is done either based on the hype, their stats in the previous league, or in my case with Sancho last season.....thinking your club just signed the best player in the world. My first warning is to proceed with caution when drafting these players, even top ones such as Haaland and Nunez. While both should offer first round value ,there is every chance they struggle to adapt to a much faster and more physical league. If you do take either in the 1st or 2nd round, be sure to follow that up by drafting a few players with proven track records in the EPL. If you want more hard hitting analysis on new EPL signings, be sure to check out this article by our very own DraftLad.
With the top teams all looking to strengthen, the window will greatly impact the lineups we may see on opening day and throughout the season. A good example is the addition of Richarlison to Spurs. He's a great player that likely won't start immediately. But that doesn't mean he can't become a key starter by GW7 or 8! Expect the depth signings to look to push the current "starters" for their spots in the XI. Malacia to United is another example of that given the very inconsistent form Shaw has shown in recent seasons. It is worth punting on some of these so called "depth" signings later in the draft - this goes hand in hand with my drafting for upside advice.
I'd also like to flag that the window closes on September 1, 2022 - approximately 1 month into the EPL season. This means teams can still make key signings after the season has started, and players that you thought were locked into the XI can experience massive rotation risks all of a sudden. This is even more worrying given that most drafts will be done over a month and a half before the window closes, which is a lot of time for clubs to buy or sell players. A lot may change in that time. My advice is to check the rumour mill as you prepare draft rankings, and downgrade any players who look to be on the move. United's target man, Ronaldo, falls into this category. According to reports, he has already asked to leave the club, but this saga could drag on well into August. My advice would be to avoid Ronaldo until the 4th round until these rumours are put to bed. Let him be someone else's problem early on in the draft.
What to look for in the preseason
It's always tricky trying to make any substantive/valuable findings based on the preseason. You have players like Ross Barkley and Andreas Pereira who turn into world class players year after year in preseason, only to turn back into fringe players who drop stinkers when given their shot in the middle of the season. Of course, seeing a player score 7 goals and grab 4 assists in just 5 games will make you tempted to bump him way up your rankings. But you should be looking deeper than just their "stats". A lot of teams will arrange plenty of games within just a few games and obviously no player can play every game. Given that it's the preseason, it's not worth it risking burnout or injury.
It is important to look at the lineups being rolled out and prioritize the games where it looks like a majority of the "A" team is starting and the team is taking the game more seriously. As teams near the end of preseason, what I have found is that they will usually start to play their stronger lineups to let the potential opening day XI gel together. The last 2 games for each team are the most crucial in my opinion. Make notes on who starts those important games, how many minutes these players get, who was hooked earlier than others, who maybe had a lights out performance from the bench, who got on the score sheet, who had a stinker, and of course how did the team actually perform with that lineup. Hopefully this advice help you narrow down what you actually need to look for in preseason. As I've mentioned, the early part of preseason is just for players to shake off the rust....don't read too much into a backup winger scoring 4 goals in the first week of July vs a third division team.
You also want to monitor any injuries that may occur during preseason. BenDinnery is your best bet for on the money injury news. You will want to avoid drafting players who pick up something more serious than a cramp or fatigue, and especially those that may need a scan to determine the extent of damage. The last thing you want to do is use your 2nd round pick on a player that is missing the first 6 games of the season with a hamstring strain. A follow up to this is looking for players that could get their moment in the spotlight while a key player is forced to recover on the sidelines. Who knows, that so called backup could end up becoming a mainstay in the XI if he is able to string together a few top performances.
Lastly, you really want to pay attention to a team's preseason form. If a team the calibre of Manchester United loses 7/7 preseason games.....you may want to stay away from their assets as it could mean they are set for a slow start to the season, which of course will impact their fantasy performances. By the same token, if a team is really putting in the goals and keeping the clean sheets, then it might be worth punting on some of their lesser known or lesser valued starters later in the draft in the hope that they continue the good form, at least for the first month or so of the season.
Ranks Explained
Eriksen over Sancho
A lot of people may disagree with this one, but I think Eriksen seriously contends for top 10 player status this year. I have him ranked at #15 overall, with Sancho at #27 overall. This would put Eriksen near the start of the 2nd round, and Sancho sometime in the 3rd round. That is where these two players should go. I wrote extensively about Eriksen in the United Best Players article, but I'll reiterate that United desperately need his creativity. With the Dane in the lineup alongside Bruno, I think Sancho will see less of the ball and become a bit more goal/assist dependent, with the focal point of the attack going through Eriksen and Bruno. Eriksen should get majority of sets as well, unlike Sancho, and he has proven he can ball out in the Premier League no matter what team he plays for. The notion that Eriksen will see a big reduction in playtime or will just be fielded in domestic cups/Europa League is definitely false. He had a few other offers, and wouldn't have accepted the one at United if his role was to be drastically diminished. Expect a big season from the Danish playmaker.
Salah at 5
The majority of my colleagues have Salah at 1-1 overall. While he surely has every chance to hit that type of form this season, I predict that he does not reach the incredible heights of the first half of last season. Again, Salah is the type of player who can score 50+ points and win you a week, and going with him at 1-1 has every chance of working out. But I have put Son at 1-1 this season, and ranked Kane, De Bruyne, and Trent above Salah in my initial ranks. I think the Spurs attackers, especially Son, hit a new high this season. Conte is a massive Son fan and he has a set piece monopoly. A full preseason under Conte, Son being snubbed of awards he deserved last season, and the hunger to prove he's world class makes him an easy 1-1 for me. De Bruyne is also back in my top 5 with the signing of Haaland; having a true striker and one of the best finishers around to feed will only help this already world class midfielder. I expect De Bruyne to be the best midfield in Fantrax and offer more upside than Salah. Trent vs Salah was very close, but I do have Trent at more starts, and the fact that he takes corners (with both Konate and VVD to aim at) gives the English RB the edge.
I see Salah potentially being less of the "focal point" with the form of Diaz, the signing of Nunez, and the 5 sub rule. Salah will see his number go up by the 4th official more often than last season, which could hurt his fantasy production slightly as he'll have less minutes on the pitch. He was in poor form post-AFCON last year, and while I expect it to improve, I don't think he'll replicate that early-season form. Although I still rate him as a top 5 player, I think passing at Salah at 1-1 might be the way to go this season. If you want a player playing on a title contender at 1st or 2nd pick, then I would say go for De Bruyne and his incredible upside.
It is worth noting Salah will not be attending the World Cup this season, but it remains to be seen if that rest will benefit him, or lack of match sharpness impact him.
Joao Cancelo at 16
While a ranking of 16 is nothing to be ashamed of, all of my colleagues likely have Cancelo in their top 10. Last season, Cancelo finished as the 6th overall scorer, with an average of 14 points per start in 36 starts. That is incredible for any player. He picked up 1 goal and 7 assists enroute. This season, I do think he will still get 30-35 starts and he'll still rack up the clean sheets and the odd attacking returns. However, he'll be in a different role, not the "free roaming" attack whenever you want one from last season. City hasn't had a proper #9 since Aguero left. But with the arrival of Haaland, I expect Pep to play a different style and Cancelo could lose out on some points as a result.
Cancelo may still have license to overlap and whip in crosses (still making him a top 3 elite defender), but I don't think we will see him occupying space in the "CAM" area as much as he did last campaign. I expect Pep to go with a 433 and for Kalvin Phillips to lineup with De Bruyne and Rodri in the midfield. Phillips is a very talented player and with the creativity of De Bruyne in there as well...there is no need for Cancelo to drift so far into the middle of the field. This slight role change should hurt his output slightly. I expect his starts to be similar but PPS to drop off slightly, and as always the farther City make it in the Champions League, the more likely he is to get a few more breathers. If City make the UCL final, I would put him closer to 32 starts instead of 36. He is definitely worth consideration near the end of the first round if you want a defender and both Robertson and Trent are gone. But I would be looking to draft him in the early-mid 2nd round this season.
Luke Shaw Not in the Top 100
Currently, I have Luke Shaw ranked 102 overall, which puts him at about round 9. Many people may not even look to draft Shaw in general, but most of you who have followed my work will know he is one of my all-time...yes, all-time favourite EPL players. But unfortunately, I don't think Ten Hag sees Shaw as a long or short term option. The rapid signing of 22 year old Left Back, Malacia, should be raising red flags for everyone. It was the first deal done and only took a few days to finalize and complete. This shows Ten Hag wanted the left back ASAP so he could bring him on the preseason tour. I would not be surprised to see Malacia in the starting XI as early as GW3-4. At 22, he was not brought in to play second fiddle to someone who is 27. He will seriously compete for play time there. I think Shaw is one of the best LB's in the Premier League, and the leg break was one of the worst things to see as his fan. But I do think he may need to look elsewhere if the early signs show Ten Hag doesn't rate him. He is too young and too talented to settle for a backup role at a club that finished 6th last season. Let's not forget the fact Telles is still on the books (for now), and will at least steal 2-5 EPL starts from both these LBs as well.
Another big factor in this ranking is set pieces. In the past 2 seasons, Shaw has taken his fair share of corners and free kicks, which provided a great foundation for fantasy points. With the signing of playmaker Eriksen...Shaw's days on set pieces are likely over. The set pieces will be shared by Bruno and Eriksen100% of the time. Expect Shaw, given his height or lack of height, to stay back during set-plays and not even be in the box as a target to aim at. I think this seriously hurts his upside and his floor given he already only averaged 7.8 ghost points/start last season. Take away 1-2 key passes a game and you are looking at 5 or less ghost points per start...that could put him in the same range as defenders such as Dier and Konsa, who usually go undrafted. If Shaw has a killer preseason, then he is still worth a pick in rounds 10-13, but immediately look to follow that up with a Malacia pick. The United defender I would look to aim for, instead, is Diogo Dalot, who averaged 9.5 ghost points per start without set pieces.
Thiago in the Top 50
As of now, I have Thiago from Liverpool ranked at 49, and I really do think Thiago will have a great season. He already has proven he can put up great stats - last season, he had 10.5 points per start and a floor of 8.3 ghost points per start. With more minutes in him, he should easily prove he is a top 50 player in Fantrax. Klopp will want to get the best out of Thiago this season, given the all around qualities he has in his locker. I do think with a proper preseason, and the team looking to address his injury issues, he will get more than the 17 starts he did last year. Thiago's injury history has been a worry for fantasy managers, and at the age of 31 I do understand the fear, but I have no doubt he will crack 25 starts, as Klopp will look to both hook him early, and properly manage a player that will be key to Liverpool challenging for the title. He currently has an ADP of 67....in my opinion, that is a steal. If you can get him as a MID2-3 to compliment a few other elite players drafted in the early rounds, your team will be in good shape.
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