Welcome to The Draft Society’s team-by-team previews, a vital part of the 23/24 Draft Kit! These articles will provide a one-stop-shop for all the important Fantasy EPL themes from a Fantrax perspective. With players to watch, players to avoid, points projections and early season fixtures analysis, we've got it all covered. Our Draft Premier League Team Previews will help set you up to dominate your draft! Now, let's analyze Vincent Kompany's dynamic Burnley team.
Check back often! Our team previews will be updated throughout the summer as any new transfer, injury, or rotation developments come to light.
Check out our 23/24 Draft Kit for all the pre-season information you could ever need. We've got a Live Draft Aide, Draft Rankings, Team Previews, Cheat Sheets, Strategy Articles, Draft 101, plus so much more!
Burnley Team Preview 23/24
Check out our in-depth look at Burnley's prospects for the new EPL season below. This information will form a key component of your draft prep and set you up to dominate your draft! The Clarets dominated the Championship last season, but how will they adapt to life in the Premier League, and which of their assets is worth considering in drafts?
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Fantasy Flashback
Let's review how Burnley players fared in 22/23, with an emphasis on their Draft Premier League fantasy assets. But, we'll also discuss any pertinent info regarding managerial tactics, formation, injuries, etc. What can we learn from their performance in the last campaign?
Note: The stats in the table below were taken from DraftLad's excellent Fantrax 23/24 EPL Incomers Stats spreadsheet, in which he converts the stats from other leagues into Fantrax points.
There are some solid-looking points in the table above, but it's worth noting that scores here are from the Championship and need to be taken with a grain of salt given the step up in difficulty to the Premier League. I normally adjust scores by keeping ghost points similar or slightly reduced depending on positions and significantly reducing points from goals, assists or clean sheets. However, this is as good a guide as we have on who performed well under new manager Vincent Kompany last season and shows us which players could be worth a punt in drafts this coming season. The standout performer was Josh Brownhill on 450 FPts, a model of consistency racking up 41 starts and a solid 11 PPS. Top scorer Nathan Tella also catches the eye with a significant number of starts and 10.2 PPS. Manuel Benson's 13.8 PPS catches the eye; he proved an explosive player, cutting on the right wing to score 11 goals in admittedly a limited number of starts. Anass Zaroury was not quite as explosive on the other flank but secured more starts than Benson and scored a solid 7 goals and 4 assists. Interestingly, the central defenders Harwood-Bellis and Beyer outscored the attacking young full-backs Maatsen and Roberts, not something I'd expect to continue in the Premier League with fewer teams focused on aerial attacks. Forwards Ashley Barnes and Jay Rodriguez didn't set the world alight with just 16 goals between them.
Overall Team Performance
Burnley destroyed the Championship last season, putting up 101 points courtesy of 29 wins, 14 draws and just 3 losses. It was a story of utter dominance, leading the way in both the most goals scored (87 from 66.8 xG) and least conceded (35 from 38.2xGA). Before I get into how the team played it's worth noting that an overperformance of 20 xG is absolutely huge and raises questions marks over how they will adapt to the Premier League given the standard of keepers and defenders will go up!
However, at the start of the season, things did not look so positive. After being relegated from the Premier League, Burnley lost a significant number of players, with stalwarts James Tarkowski, Ben Mee, Ashley Westwood and Matt Lowton leaving on free transfers and significant fees recouped for Nick Pope, Dwight McNeil, Nathan Collins and Maxwel Cornet. As such, new manager Vincent Kompany had a huge job on his hands to restructure the team in his image. He did an excellent job in replacing the old guard with a host of young talents signed for modest fees, mostly from Belgium, and a plethora of extremely useful loan signings.
For those of you that haven't been paying much attention to the Championship, the days of Dyche-ball are well and truly gone under Kompany. He did an incredible job to turn around Burnley's playing style in such a short space of time. Given that Kompany played under Pep Guardiola at Man City, it shouldn't be too surprising that Burnley have taken on a possession-based style, boasting an average 64% possession last season.
Burnley generally set up in a fluid 4-2-3-1 or 4-3-3 formation with the most used personnel shown below from Whoscored. In attack, the full-backs would push high up the pitch to join the forwards to make a 2-3-5 shape, with the central defenders and midfielders tasked with recycling possession. They would generally build up from their half like this circulating possession, focusing on short interchanges to manoeuvre the opposition, trying to draw them out. When pressed, the wide full-backs Maatsen and Roberts would come into play to either stretch the game and interchange with the wide forwards or get crosses into the box. However, they could be pragmatic at times, with some of their goals coming from route one, quarterback-style passes from the CBs. Out of possession, Burney would defend in a mid-block 4-4-2 type shape, with the two wide attackers staying high, but the centre-forward coming deeper to sit on the opposition CDM. Burnley tended not to press high up the pitch, instead waiting for the ball to come a bit nearer their half to spring on the opposition, which suits their more measured build-up play.
Replacing Pope, who turned out to be one of the best keepers in the Premier League at Newcastle last season, seemed a thankless task, but Arijanet Muric suited the new style of play much better than Pope ever could. While there was the odd howler, his ability on the ball and commitment to playing out from the back was fundamental to how Burnley played. However, the signing of young keeper James Trafford (also from Man City) for an eye-watering sum of £19m looks to put Muric's spot in jeopardy.
As discussed above the full-backs were vital to how Burnley played last season, regularly bombing up the wings to join in the attack. The diminutive Maatsen, on loan from Chelsea, was the more attacking of the two, putting up 4 goals and 6 assists in 38 starts. However, Roberts chipped in with a fair few too, contributing 4 goals and 3 assists in 39 starts. Both players could have the potential to be handy Fantrax assets in favourable fixtures next season, although it is still to be determined whether Maatesen will join on loan for another season.
The centre-back partnership was all new comprising young Harwood-Bellis (who played under Kompany at Anderlecht), signed on loan from Man City, and Beyer, also on loan from Borussia Monchengladbach. Both achieved decent points totals of 8.7 PPS and 9.4 PPS respectively. For a team that kept so much possession, the centre-backs were reasonably busy, with Harwood-Bellis racking up 2.9 AER/ 90, 1.9 Int/90 and 0.7 TkW/90 and Beyer 2.4 AER/90, 1.4 Int/90 and 1.4 TkW/90. While we may expect Burnley centre-backs to be less busy aerially in the Premier League with fewer direct teams than in the Championship, they could be busier in terms of tackles and interceptions. With all that said, there are no standout numbers here that would make you go out and draft a Burnley centre-back.`
The midfield was typically made up of workhorses Jack Cork and fan favourite Josh Cullen in a double pivot with Josh Brownhill in the more advanced no.10 role providing the creativity. Tella was the standout attacking midfielder used across the wide and central areas with Zaroury well-established on the left and Benson on the right sharing starts with Gudmundsson. Up top Barnes and Rodriguez shared minutes and put in the hard work defensively for the team.
Fantasy Forecast`
Past is prelude, as they say. So, turning to the 23/24 season, we've got Burnley player projections, 3 key players to keep an eye on, 3 players we're staying away from, 3 question marks surrounding the club at this moment, and an analysis of the Clarets' early-season fixtures.
23/24 Player Projections
Below, you'll find our season projections for Burnley fantasy assets. Our projections are created using a number of contributing factors such as past performance, fixture difficulty ratings, anticipated minutes played, and more. PPS (Points Per Start) and ProjTotFPts (Projected Total Points) refer to Fantrax Default Scoring.
There's not a huge amount to shout about here with projections very pessimistic about the prospects of Burnley's players this coming season. Only Josh Brownhill and Manuel Benson manage to break the 8 PPS barrier and let's face it much below that and you're looking at streaming territory, but we'll take a look at whether any of these prospects are worth a spot on your draft board.
3 Players to Watch
We've highlighted 3 players (and some honorable mentions) from Burnley that we're keeping an eye on. Some players mentioned below may be sleepers. Some may be up-and-coming youngsters. Some may be vying for a spot in the XI. Whatever the case, we'll tell you why we're watching these 3 in EPL Draft Fantasy this year.
Josh Brownhill
Position: Midfielder
22/23 Points: N/A
22/23 Points Per Start: N/A
23/24 Projected Points Per Start: 8.2 (34 starts)
Recommended Draft Pick: 82 (12 Team League: Round 7)
Analysis: Josh Brownhill was a revelation last season for the Clarets, playing in a more advanced role than what we would remember in the Premier League under Dyche. He posted 8 goals and 7 assists in 41 starts which converts to 11 PPS (8.3 gPPS). Above I have included two charts from the McLachApp summarising key stats from FBRef, one as a midfielder and one as an attacking midfielder. As can be seen from the spread of minutes, although he played a lot of his minutes in the advanced no.10 role, later in the season it was a more fluid situation with Brownhill often deployed in the double pivot next to Cullen, which stifled his attacking output somewhat. One to look out for in pre-season in terms of how any new signings could impact his role. What we can see from the statistics is that Brownhill was a creative force from midfield with high assist numbers, but low ball-carrying numbers. While he didn't compare well to attacking midfielders/wingers in shooting and goal contributions, he was pretty handy for midfielders. It's nice to see very healthy tackle and interception numbers which will contribute to a solid floor. Brownhill will be the dependable floor player that every squad needs, while still possessing enough upside, especially if Burnley's attacking style translates well to the Premier League, that he's worthy of a draft pick in the middle rounds.
Benson Manuel
Position: Forward
22/23 Points: N/A
22/23 Points Per Start: N/A
23/24 Projected Points Per Start: 8.9 (25 starts)
Recommended Draft Pick: 100 (12 Team League: Round 9)
Analysis: Benson was an exciting signing from Belgium side Royal Antwerp. Now 26 years old, he took his big opportunity to shine, putting in some explosive displays on the right wing. He played as an inverted wing forward, cutting in his left foot to get shots off, which he managed with aplomb scoring 11 goals and providing 3 assists. The caveat with him is that he only started 14 games, coming on as a substitute 19 times, so while the 13.8 PPS looks very tasty, rotation is a risk with him, especially with potential new signings fighting for his spot. One issue to highlight is his frankly absurd overperformance of his xG, with those11 goals coming from just 4.0 xG. I just can't see this being repeated, especially now that he'll be facing better defenders in the Premier League who will make it a lot more difficult to get shots off like he did in the Championship. Benson is the most fun, upside pick that you could go for in this Burnley side. If he can make or exceed his projection of 25 starts he will be a very handy asset indeed, however, the ranking of 100 reflects the question mark over his playing time.
Anass Zaroury
Position: Forward
22/23 Points: N/A
22/23 Points Per Start: N/A
23/24 Projected Points Per Start: 7.6 (27 starts)
Recommended Draft Pick: 146 (12 Team League: Round 13)
Analysis: Similar in profile to Benson on the opposite flank, Zaroury operated as the inverted wing forward from the left, earning 27 starts despite missing a huge chunk of games while on International duty for Morocco at the World Cup. Zaroury is a hugely energetic young player that puts the hard shift in defensively while also offering trickery and flair in the attacking third, contributing with a solid 7 goals and 5 assists on the way to 10.6 PPS (7.5 gPPS). While it's difficult to translate those numbers to the Premier League, at 22 years old there is certainly room for improvement and he could be an exciting option to punt on in the later rounds of the draft. While he was the preferred option at LW, it's worth keeping an eye on any incoming transfer developments in the run-up to draft day.
Honorable Mention(s):
At this point, the only players left to mention are potential new signings. The most exciting signing for Burnley fans and Fantrax managers would be Nathan Tella from Southampton. He was top scorer with 17 goals while on loan last season, operating across the central and wide attacking midfield positions. One to watch out for over the next few weeks.
Additionally, the full-backs, in particular Ian Maatseen on the left side, were very attacking. If Burnley manage to secure another loan deal for him that would be a real coup and he would be one to look out for. If not, the player that takes on the left-back position could end up being a handy Fantrax asset if they share the same characteristics.
Another player worth highlighting now that it appears unlikely Harwood-Bellis re-signs at centre-back is new signing Dara O'Shea from West Brom. Last season he put up very solid numbers with 9.6 PP90 (8.7 gPP90). While I wouldn't necessarily recommend drafting him due to the terrible fixtures that Burnley start the season with, the 4.2 AER/90 he racked up is certainly eye-catching, so maybe one to keep an eye out for during a favourable fixture run.
3 Players to Avoid
It's not all sunshine and rainbows at Turf Moor. At least, not as far as Draft Fantasy Football is concerned. Below, we will also highlight 3 fantasy assets that we're not so thrilled about. These are the 3 Burnley players you might want to avoid come draft day.
Jay Rodriguez
Position: Forward
22/23 Points: N/A
22/23 Points Per Start: N/A
23/24 Projected Points Per Start: 7.3 (8 starts)
Recommended Draft Pick: DND
Analysis: Jay Rodriguez shared the minutes at centre-forward with Ashley Barnes last season. The role involved a lot of dropping deep out of possession to link up play and attacking the box to get on the end of crosses. While they managed to score 16 goals between them, this clearly won't be enough for Burnley as they move into the Premier League. Barnes has now left the club but I don't expect Rodriguez at 33 years old to claim this spot for himself. The forward picture is a bit of a muddle now, with Zeki Amdouni signed from FC Basel, Weghorst returning from his loan spell at Man United, Michael Obafemi (now signed permanently), and Lyle Taylor still on the books but largely untested from their limited appearances last season. It's not particularly clear who will manage to make the no. 9 spot their own this season or whether any new signings will be incoming so Rodriguez is a hard avoid for me.
Johann Gudmundsson
Position: Midfielder
22/23 Points: N/A
22/23 Points Per Start: N/A
23/24 Projected Points Per Start: 5.4 (11 starts)
Recommended Draft Pick: DND
Analysis: A familiar name to many fantasy managers who will likely fondly remember his supremely productive 17/18 season where he put up 345 points at over 10 PPS. Now 32 years of age after seeming to be perennially injured, Gudmundsson managed a solid 23 starts last season, deployed mostly in the no.10 or right-wing forward positions. He managed 9.1 PPS but for translating to the Premier League that just isn't good enough. Throw in the fact that he's a rotation piece and it makes him a streamer at best.
Josh Cullen
Position: Midfielder
22/23 Points: N/A
22/23 Points Per Start: N/A
23/24 Projected Points Per Start: 5.4 (32 starts)
Recommended Draft Pick: DND
Analysis: One of Burnley's standout performers last season was Irish International Josh Cullen, who sat in the double pivot at the base of midfield, acting as the link player between the defence and the attack. A good passing range and strong defensive capabilities made Cullen a hugely reliable player to orchestrate play. Sadly this is a case of great in real life, bad for fantasy as he is stuck in no man's land, rarely far forward enough to pick up key passes/assists, and not busy enough off the ball to rack up defensive contributions. While Burnley's share of possession will likely reduce in the Premier League, unless we see a change in his role it just won't be enough to make him a viable fantasy asset.
Honorable Mention(s):
Nathan Redmond is another player that could be taken for nostalgic reasons by managers in drafts but I would steer clear as it's not immediately obvious where his minutes will come from. With the signing appearing to be more for depth purposes, we're likely to see Redmond as a rotation piece.
3 Question Marks
Not everything is crystal clear and predictable at Burnley. These are 3 questions surrounding the Clarets that we’re grappling with this preseason. We’ll try to note whether or not (and how much) these questions are affecting our perceptions of Burnley's fantasy assets.
Loanees Returning - There was a huge number of loanees that performed admirably for the Clarets last season who will be returning to their parent clubs, with England U21 Euros winning CB Harwood-Bellis, top scorer Nathan Tella, and dynamic left-back Ian Maatsen topping the list. If Burnley are to survive and thrive in the Premier League, these players need to be re-signed/replaced adequately and it's not immediately obvious that they have managed to do so just yet.
Forward Congestion - Burnley have a plethora of strikers and wide forwards at the club and it's not immediately obvious which of them will take those three spots and whether any new signings will come in to relegate them to rotation pieces. Something to watch out for in the transfer window and pre-season games.
Adapting to the PL - While Kompany's tactics worked wonders in the Championship, it's yet to be seen how that will translate to the Premier League, with teams more adept at finding holes in even the best tactical systems. We got a sneak peak last season in the FA Cup when Burnley visited Man City; for the first half an hour Burnley more than held their own but a couple of snap Haaland goals later and it all went to pot and ended in a 6-0 drubbing. If Burnley's defensive assets are going to be at all viable we may need to see a more pragmatic approach from Kompany, especially in tougher games.
Early-Season Fixture Difficulty
The way that teams come out the gate has big implications in EPL Draft. A red hot start creates red hot trade targets. A dismal start means plummeting player values and losses for your fantasy team. Check out our thoughts on Burnley's early-season fixtures and our analysis of the fantasy implications they will have.
It doesn't get any rougher than Burnley's early season fixtures and to top it off their easiest tie has been postponed due to work at Luton's ground to get it Premier League-ready! For the first 5 fixtures, Burnley rank dead last for keepers, defenders, and midfielders and are ahead of only Luton for forwards. That difficult run extends to GW9 so it's likely that any of their assets, particularly the borderline WW assets, will only become viable from GW10. So this is a warning that you likely shouldn't be reaching for any Burnley players in the draft, even if you're high on them, as you'll likely be able to bring them in on a cut-price deal after a few gameweeks.
23/24 Burnley Predicted Lineup
The following lineup represents our prediction for the most likely line-up for the long-term for Burnley in the upcoming season. We can't account for injuries or new transfers, but this should provide a reasonable guide for who will be the preferred starters for the majority of Premier League matches this season.
Kompany"s men will have a challenge to replicate the free-flowing attacking football they produced to win the Championship. Weghorst's return poses the biggest question mark up front and the rotating wingers might get more unpredictable if the rumoured City youngsters get the green light to sign for Burnley.
More Team Previews: Arsenal | Aston Villa | Bournemouth | Brentford | Brighton | Burnley | Chelsea | Crystal Palace | Everton | Fulham | Luton | Liverpool | Man City | Man United | Newcastle | Nottingham Forest | Sheffield United | Tottenham | West Ham | Wolves
Check out our 23/24 Draft Kit for all the pre-season information you could ever need. We've got a Live Draft Aide, Draft Rankings, Team Previews, Cheat Sheets, Strategy Articles, Draft 101, plus so much more. Dominate your draft!
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