Welcome to The Draft Society’s team-by-team previews, a vital part of the 23/24 Draft Kit! These articles will provide a one-stop-shop for all the important Fantasy EPL themes from a Fantrax perspective. With players to watch, players to avoid, points projections and early season fixtures analysis, we've got it all covered. Our Draft Premier League Team Previews will help set you up to dominate your draft! Now, on to one of the less heralded surprise teams of last season, Brentford and their draft fantasy outlook for the upcoming season.
Check back often! Our team previews will be updated throughout the summer as any new transfer, injury, or rotation developments come to light.
Check out our 23/24 Draft Kit for all the pre-season information you could ever need. We've got a Live Draft Aide, Draft Rankings, Team Previews, Cheat Sheets, Strategy Articles, Draft 101, plus so much more!
Brentford Team Preview 23/24
Check out our in-depth look at Brentford's prospects for the new EPL season below. This information will form a key component to your draft prep and set you up to dominate your draft!
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Fantasy Flashback
Let's review how Brentford players fared in 22/23, with an emphasis on their Draft Premier League fantasy assets. But, we'll also discuss any pertinent info regarding managerial tactics, formation, injuries, etc. What can we learn from their performance in the last campaign?
Note: The following table is interactive. Desktop users can apply the Filter, Group, and Sort buttons to arrange the data to their preferences. Mobile users can tap on a player card to view all data points. The table can be reset to its default state by refreshing the page.
After losing and not replacing the talismanic Eriksen, who helped them emphatically stay in the EPL in their first season after getting promoted, it was only natural that most of the pundits expected the Bees to struggle a bit with "Second Season Syndrome" both in real life and for fantasy too.
Ivan Toney almost single-handedly made sure that they established themselves as a proper mid-table team which, on their day, could beat anyone. Toney ended up 14th overall scorer despite only playing 33 games, in which he managed 20 goals, getting him on the podium in the Golden Boot race. His main partner in crime, Bryan Mbeumo, came in second among the Bees as he had his breakout fantasy year as he turned his 115th ADP spot into 21st overall when the final whistle went on the last day of the season.
As much as the 2 main strikers took the headlines, the respectable top-half finish could not have been achieved without top-scoring GK David Raya, rejuvenated aerial maestro Ben Mee and solidity personified, Ethan Pinnock. While we expected Pinnock to continue his ghost-point-getting performances from last year, the other two came as a bit of a surprise. Ben Mee, perhaps aerially overshadowed by his former CB partner Tarkowski at Burnley, romped to the top of the Aerials Won charts with Pinnock and Toney coming in 7th and 6th in the same classification respectively. It is no surprise that Brentford as a whole won the aerial trophy with a whopping 665 aerial duels won across the season.
If you open the Oxford English Dictionary and search for “set piece” there is a chance there will soon be a picture of Brentford’s badge alongside the explanation. Mathias Jensen and Mbeumo split indirect free-kicks and corners between them, with Toney (Mbeumo in his absence) taking penalties and Mbeumo and Toney splitting direct free-kicks. I will not bore you with how the set-piece sausage is made, but if you would like to go deeper into tactical analyses, these three articles cover the technical and tactical nuances of how Brentford have been dominating the set-piece game for years: 1, 2, 3.
Overall Team Performance
Brentford wrote their name in the record books by being the only team to beat eventual Champions, Man City, home and away. They also managed to earn victories over Man United, Spurs, Liverpool and Chelsea. These results paint a clear picture of what kind of team Brentford are: solid at the back, lethal on the counter.
Brentford perfected a 2-formation tactical system that they changed up constantly, based on the opposition they faced. Against teams that were likely to dominate them, Thomas Frank utilised a 5-3-2 setup that in possession morphed into a 3-5-2 with the full-backs providing width. They used this tactic from kick-off 17 times during the season, 15 times with Toney in the lineup and twice without him, with Mbeumo and Toney being the preferred strike partnership. As this tactic was mostly used against "bigger teams", it was designed to take advantage of the speed and directness both strikers possess. The front two, rather than occupying traditional number 9 and number 10 roles, were split to take a position a bit deeper, in the half-spaces, baiting the opposition to apply a higher defensive line. This higher defensive line was then exploited by the forwards running onto diagonal balls from deeper areas mostly from Jensen, Mee or the full-backs.
Against opponents who they could match up better against, Frank played a 4-3-3 system, with Toney acting as the focal point in the number 9 role. RW was almost always occupied by Mbeumo and LW minutes were shared between Wissa, Schade and Keane Lewis-Potter. Toney was able to play 2 roles in one: As a classic number 9, he pinned the CBs back to allow Jensen and the two wingers, who in this system were inverted, space to move into. As a number 10, he dropped deeper, allowing Mbeumo and his LW counterpart a similar role as they would occupy in the 5-3-2 system, to run onto long balls coming from deep playmakers. Toney's versatility allowed Brentford to show a 4-3-3 system but still play a counter-attacking game, relying on the directness of their wingers.
To allow space behind opposition defences, they invited pressure, which meant that both the 2-CB set and the 3-CB set were heavily bombarded. They topped the league in aerials won, but were third lowest on shots on target as they homed in on efficiency in front of goal, rather than a high number of chances created.
The last piece of relevant information from last year that could help us plan for next season is the fact that Brentford used the second-lowest number of players in 2022/23 (25 all together), which included 4 players who didn't reach 150 minutes. They also had no fewer than 6 outfielders reach 30 games. With not a whole lot of new signings happening, it is safe to say Brentford are going to use a very lean squad again in the 2023/24 season, which also means that once you have a starting Brentford asset, you can likely count on him.
It is difficult not to mention the biggest factor from last season affecting this season: Ivan Toney's betting ban. The rules of the ban state that he is banned from all footballing activity -- including training -- for 4 months, and an additional 4 months where he can train but cannot participate in any matches. The decision about the ban is final and will not be overturned so we will not see Toney back on the pitch until January. Obviously it is a huge blow for Toney as well as the team itself. It is too far away to try to predict how his fitness will look after not playing for 8 months so proceed with caution.
Fantasy Forecast
Past is prelude, as they say. So, turning to the 23/24 season, we've got Brentford player projections, 3 key players to keep an eye on, 3 players we're staying away from, 3 question marks surrounding the club at this moment, and an analysis of the Bees' early-season fixtures.
23/24 Player Projections
Below, you'll find our season projections for Brentford fantasy assets. Our projections are created using a number of contributing factors such as past performance, fixture difficulty ratings, anticipated minutes played, and more. PPS (Points Per Start) and ProjTotFPts (Projected Total Points) refer to Fantrax Default Scoring.
No huge surprises here. The biggest one, which we will look at a bit later, is that even though Toney's ban means that he will play at most 13 games, he still sneaks in as the 4th highest ProjWAR player and has a sub-100 WAR Rank. In his absence, Schade, Wissa and Lewis-Potter will share minutes on the left wing and up front, which is clear to see in the table above if you look at the ProjGS (Projected Starts) column.
The midfielders will offer solid, yet unspectacular value, whereas the defenders can be categorized in two groups: Elite (Pinnock and Mee), and Undraftable (everyone else).
3 Players to Watch
We've highlighted 3 players (and some honorable mentions) from Brentford that we're keeping an eye on. Some players mentioned below may be sleepers. Some may be up-and-coming youngsters. Some may be vying for a spot in the XI. Whatever the case, we'll tell you why we're watching these 3 in EPL Draft Fantasy this year.
Bryan Mbeumo
Position: Forward
22/23 Points: 381 (21st overall)
22/23 Points Per Start: 10.1 (36 starts)
23/24 Projected Points Per Start: 10.5 (34 starts)
Recommended Draft Pick: 30-40 (12-team league: Late Round 3/Early Round 4)
Analysis: Mbeumo had a breakout season in 22/23 and, with the exception of a brief cold streak in the Fall, he provided real value to those who rostered him. From August to January (until Toney is back), he will be the main man in the Bees' attack. There are plenty of encouraging signs to get you excited about his prospects, none more so than his numbers in the limited games Toney was unavailable for. During Ivan's 5-game absence last season, Mbeumo managed a frankly incredible 5 goals and 1 assist, contributing at least one attacking return in each of the games. If that is not enough to convince you, he also became the primary penalty-taker in the aforementioned period, as well as retaining a healthy share of corner and free-kick duty. He really will become the main man, one-stop-shop, head honcho of this team in Toney's absence and you will likely be able to get him as the last forward of his tier due to the lack of mainstream name recognition (a tier that includes 3 Liverpool attackers and Isak).
Mathias Jensen
Position: Midfielder
22/23 Points: 306.5 (43rd overall)
22/23 Points Per Start: 8.3 (37 starts)
23/24 Projected Points Per Start: 8.1 (27 starts)
Recommended Draft Pick: Around pick 100-110 (12 Team League: Round 9-10)
Analysis: As expected by those inside the club, Jensen struggled somewhat with the adjustment to the Premier League in 21/22, routinely losing his spot, only starting 19 games, and losing all set-piece duty once Eriksen arrived. It was therefore a surprise when Brentford decided to go into the 22/23 season "not replacing" the talismanic Eriksen. It is a true testament to a well-run club when a decision like this works out well, and work out it did. Jensen went on to dominate the Brentford midfield, both from set-pieces and from open play. His second season in the EPL offers a lot of encouraging data points. He scored 5 goals and 6 assists (his best outing since his Danish Superliga days in 17/18), he created the most chances for Brentford (48) and he got the most nutmegs in the league! When looking at mid-late round midfield talent, you essentially have 2 ways to go: go for the Harry Wilson, Facundo Bounanotte, Bernardo Silva type who can be boom or bust (or might not even be in the league once you start playing) or go for solid mids. Similarly ranked "solid" mids include: Kovacic, Soucek, Gallagher, Fernandez. Amongst these players, Jensen shines as a nailed mid, with a defined and crucial role in the attack, who is capable of starting 37 games a season (and playing 90 in 31 one of them).
Kevin Schade
Position: Midfielder
22/23 Points: 69.5 (94th MID since 1st Jan)
22/23 Points Per Start: 6.4 (7 starts)
23/24 Projected Points Per Start: 8.4 (23 starts)
Recommended Draft Pick: 70-75 (12 Team League: late Round 6/early Round 7)
Analysis: Kevin Schade is the dark horse of the recommended players, as he is the only one who really has not proven that he can be a fantasy stud (8 matches for Freiburg in the autumn of 22/23 with 12.1 PP90 is nothing to be scoffed at, but it is not conclusive). His ascension through the youth ranks attracted a fair few scouts and interested parties before he decided to join Brentford in the January transfer window. He started 7 games for the Bees and posted a respectable 8.8 PP90 from an xPP90 of 11.2. This half-season was purely an introduction to the Premier League. While I believe that Schade is a great talent and is destined to have a productive career in real life and fantasy, there is little evidence I can present, so I will argue my case from a different standpoint. I am excited by his prospects for 2 main reasons: His ability to play both on the left side and centrally in a 4-3-3, but also as a split center forward in a 5-3-2 to offer a similar attacking threat as Mbeumo does from the other side. My second reason for hope is a financial one. Brentford reportedly pulled off a miracle by signing one of the most exciting and sought-after young German talents in January. They will undoubtedly do everything in their power to build on Schade's first German caps during the March internationals to elevate his value by playing him early and often. At the end of the day, Brentford perfected a financial model that has been working for them and helping them build and move up year after year. They sold Watkins, Benrahma and Maupay at the peak of their value and surely a 60M plus sale of Ivan Toney was on the cards for this off-season had it not been for the suspension. Long story short, they will do all they can to build on the excitement surrounding Schade and fantasy managers should want to jump on this money train.
Honourable Mention(s):
No Brentford article is complete without mentioning Ethan Pinnock. The center back got a late start to the 22/23 season after an injury and kicked-off with a healthy -5.75 score. However, that was with 5 goals conceded and an own goal. The trained eye knew he was back to his ghost-point-getting ways. I expect him to continue in a similar fashion in the 23/24 season.
3 Players to Avoid
It's not all sunshine and rainbows at the Community Stadium. At least, not as far as Draft Fantasy Football is concerned. Below, we will also highlight 3 fantasy assets that we're not so thrilled about. These are the 3 Brentford players you might want to avoid come draft day.
Aaron Hickey
Position: Defender
22/23 Points: 76.75 (305th overall)
22/23 Points Per Start: 3.4 (23 starts)
23/24 Projected Points Per Start: 4.8 (27 starts)
Recommended Draft Pick: Do not draft
Analysis: It is easy to get excited by seeing a starting full-back on the draft board in round 15. Aaron Hickey, while solid in real life, is not one to get excited about for fantasy purposes. Even with the very generous jump in projected points per start from last season, he still produces a negative projected WAR score for the season, meaning that in any given gameweek, you will be able to find someone better on the waiver wire. The same is true for fellow full-back Rico Henry. Avoid! This is more of a reminder to never start rationalizing picking them up during the season either.
Christian Norgaard
Position: Midfielder
22/23 Points: 172 (144th overall)
22/23 Points Per Start: 8.1 (21 starts)
23/24 Projected Points Per Start: 7.8 (25 starts)
Recommended Draft Pick: 145+ (12 Team League: Round 12 or later)
Analysis: Some say Christian Norgaard is the most talented player at Brentford. While that might be true, that does not necessarily show up as value in the fantasy game. The Danish midfielder started only 21 games this season, struggling with injury throughout. Unfortunately, defensive midfielders who do not have a piece of the set-piece pie are just not that valuable in Fantrax. His case is further hindered by an Achilles injury he picked up at the end of last season, which has kept him out of the travelling squad to the US summer series. It is still not known whether he will be ready for the start of the season. His "recommended" draft spot will be "Do Not Draft" if it is confirmed that he is not featuring in the friendlies after the US tour either.
Ben Mee
Position: Defender
22/23 Points: 347 (30th overall)
22/23 Points Per Start: 9.4 (37 starts)
23/24 Projected Points Per Start: 8.7 (27 starts)
Recommended Draft Pick: 85-95 (12 Team League: Round 8/9)
Analysis: This might be a controversial pick in the players to avoid section, but I have my reasons. When Ben Mee took over from a sacked Sean Dyche at the end of the 21/22 season to help Burnley avoid relegation, we all thought that the Burnley captain would start transitioning towards management roles soon. Well, something different happened, he signed for Brentford and had the season of his life! As mentioned before, he led the league in aerials won, finished third for blocked shots and ended up being the 30th-highest scorer in the game surpassing the likes of Jesus, Foden, Grealish, Mahrez and Gundogan for overall score. He also generated more WAR during the course of the season than Watkins, Paqueta, Estupinan and Rodri. All this from a player who had an ADP of 180, meaning that he was a last-round pick. It is not an exaggeration to say that he might have won some managers their leagues.
So why am I recommending fading him for the upcoming season? Mee currently has an ADP of 68, which shows that the community trusts that he can replicate his heroics from last season. Due to the calculated and continued absence of Ivan Toney this upcoming season and no replacement number being rumoured, playing the 4-3-3 formation would require either Schade, Wissa or KLP to continually play as a number nine and offer similar value in pinning defenses and dropping deep as Toney did. I do not expect this to be the case. While I still expect the 4-3-3 to feature, the signing of Nathan Collins, a huge upgrade over the departing Pontus Jansson, signals a plan to play the 3-CB set more often. In the 16 games when Ben Mee lined up as one of the CBs in a 3-CB set, his PPS dropped from 9.4 to 7.8 and his ghost points per start also dropped from 8.5 to 5.5. In the same data set, Pinnock's PPS and gPPS show a slight uptick from his season totals, meaning that Mee's production primarily came in the 4-3-3.
If you are like me and believe that the 5-3-2 will be more dominant in the early parts of the upcoming season, it is a very good reason to pass on Mee at his current ADP. While I do not expect new signing Collins to oust Mee from the starting lineup, it is worth noting that it is exactly what he did at Burnley after replacing Mee due to the latter's injury, and he kept the CB spot for a while even after Mee recovered. One final piece of information that makes me question putting a lot a draft stock in Mee is the fact that in Collins, Brentford finally have a CB who they can trust in a 2-CB set (not Jansson previously) who is right-footed, as opposed to Mee and Pinnock, who are both left-footed. While Mee and Pinnock formed a formidable partnership, featuring a right-footer would open up previously untapped passing lanes to unlock defences with that killer long ball. All in all, I still think Mee will be a decent fantasy asset, but at the ADP he is currently going, that is a premium you should not pay for a player with such question marks around his production.
3 Question Marks
Not everything is crystal clear and predictable at Brentford. These are 3 questions surrounding the Bees that we’re grappling with this preseason. We’ll try to note whether or not (and how much) these questions are affecting our perceptions of Brentford's fantasy assets.
Toney's value and understanding WAR - I firmly believe that most people who read stats do not fully understand them. I am of that opinion because I am one of those people. Since the introduction of WAR into the Draft PL conversation, we have featured many videos, articles and explainers to help our readers fully comprehend what it means and how it can be used to measure fantasy success. Ivan Toney's case is the perfect example to try to understand the value of WAR in fantasy conversations. Toney's projections place him at 0.75 for Projected WAR for the season. That means he will provide value above replacement-level players roughly around similar number of times as Mac Allister, Wilson, Solanke and Madueke. And he will provide that value heavily weighted towards the final third of the season. Yet his ADP is a good 10 spots lower than anyone on that list above. All of this means that if you keep Solanke for a full 38 games and he features in 32 of them, he will provide similar value as keeping Toney for 38 games and him featuring in 13 of those games. At the end of the day, you can't win leagues with only Steady Eddies; you need studs, WAR monsters like Toney to put up winning scores. So the question is, do I recommend drafting Toney? In playoff leagues, emphatically yes. For managers who like to work with a steady roster of players and do not plan to chop and churn every week on the Waiver Wire, also a yes. The only manager who might be disadvantaged by Toney's role on his roster is one who loves to stream and plays the WAR/upside game as they need all the bench spots to get a tune out of their team.
The Goalkeeper conundrum - David Raya was the best goalkeeper in the league last season. Arguably in real life, definitely for fantasy. At the end of the season, he publicly announced his desire to leave the club in search of Champions League football. Brentford, like the well-run club that they are, went ahead and signed Mark Flekken as a replacement, promising him first-team football. Fast forward 2 months and both Spurs and United, two of the rumored destinations for the Spaniard, have signed a new GK. Neither opted for Raya mostly because Brentford set the asking price at 40M, which is a hefty fee for a player with 12 months of contract left. When assessing the situation, the thing that one has to consider is that, above all, Brentford are a pragmatically-run club; they do things for a reason. Once it was clear that Raya was not signing a new contract, they made the decision to go in a different route. Going back on that decision is not in the Brentford DNA and therefore I expect to see Raya and Brentford do their best to find a new club for the GK. Even if that does not happen, Flekken will most likely be the first name on the team sheet on the first weekend.
Team Dynamics without Toney - A lot has been written about how Brentford will line up and play without Toney in the starting XI and I would not blame anyone who felt anxious about the prospect of a Toney-less Brentford's chances to replicate last season's success. I for one am hopefully and cautiously confident that, just like last season's darlings Brighton, Brentford have a plan in place to deal with adversity and will be able to hold their own. A potential upside to the Toney ban could be that they might see the market to sell him cool somewhat and they will absolutely try to tie him down to a contract extension to solidify sale value in the summer of 2024.
Early-Season Fixture Difficulty
The way that teams come out of the gate has big implications in EPL Draft. A red-hot start creates red-hot trade targets. A dismal start means plummeting player values and losses for your fantasy team. Check out our thoughts on Brentford's early-season fixtures and our analysis of the fantasy implications they will have.
When looking at the first 5 fixtures, Brentford are third best for midfielders and are in the top half for forwards too. Hitting the ground running with your draft picks is essential for your ability to make moves in the trade market, so investing in Brentford attacking assets makes a lot of sense. Their fixtures continue to be favorable for attacking assets well into the autumn months so, in this case, I would probably advise against selling high on the Bees attackers after a few games.
23/24 Brentford Predicted Lineup
The following lineup represents our prediction for the most likely line-up for the long-term for Brentford in the upcoming season. We can't account for injuries or new transfers, but this should provide a reasonable guide for who will be the preferred starters for the majority of Premier League matches this season.
Toney's absence leaves a huge hole in the Bees' lineup, but they are still looking at new signings to try to fill the void. The rest of the squad is pretty much set in stone.
More Team Previews: Arsenal | Aston Villa | Bournemouth | Brentford | Brighton | Burnley | Chelsea | Crystal Palace | Everton | Fulham | Luton | Liverpool | Man City | Man United | Newcastle | Nottingham Forest | Sheffield United | Tottenham | West Ham | Wolves
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