Our Fantasy EPL 22/23 Draft Kit promises to be the most comprehensive set of pre-season Draft Premier League articles ever produced! A key component of our Draft Kit will be the Team Preview articles which analyze key assets to sit alongside our all-important Draft Rankings. This article delves into the Best Fantrax Fantasy EPL Players from Fulham, as we take a deep dive into the prospects of their three best assets! Click here for details on how you can access our 22/23 Draft Kit.
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Fulham Best Fantasy Players
As noted above, these are the Best Fulham Players for the Fantrax Fantasy EPL platform. We analyze the Cottagers' top three prospects ahead of the new season, with a recommended draft pick for each player.
Aleksandar Mitrovic
Position: Forward
21/22 Points: 785* (in the Championship)
21/22 Points Per 90*: 18.4* (44 starts)
22/23 Projected Points Per Start: 10.3 (34 starts)
Recommended Draft Pick: 60-75 (12 Team League: Round 6 or 7)
Overview: Mitrovic had a phenomenal season in the Championship, scoring a whopping 43 goals (6 pens) in 44 starts (along with 7 assists). His 785 fantasy points across the season comes in 6th for most points (albeit with a game advantage) in the top 5 leagues + the Championship dataset (created by @Drafterthoughts)). To go with his 18.4 pp90, he put up 8.7 gPP90, made up mostly of shots on target (~2 per game), key passes (1 per game), and aerials won (~3 per game). So of course the big question is how much can he keep the scoring up, or how much will the tougher league damage his PP90. We're going to go into a bunch of math here, so bear with us. Let's look to the oddsmakers to help us predict Mitro's goals this season. In EPL top goal scorer odds, Mitrovic is 29th ranked at 50/1 (tied with Ings, Firmino, Foden, Daka, Mount) and behind Watkins, Toney, Bamford, and Richarlison (at 40/1). If we do some inferring from last season, where Foden had 9, Ings 7, Mount 11, Toney 12, Watkins 11, we can comfortably predict that the odds market (which is generally the best estimator you can find in the world; if it wasn't you could make money!) believes Mitrovic will score about 10 goals. Further math suggests that might come with 2 assists (using his G/A ratio from last season). If we say his expected starts are around 34, that means 3.0 FPts/start coming from goals and assists (trust me on the jump in math there). We'll use less math and be a bit more generous in estimating his gpp90 at 7.5 (down from 8.7 in Champ.). Put those together (assuming he plays for about 90 minutes in starts), and that gets Mitro to 10.5 PPS. At 34 expected starts, that gets his total projected WAR (see the projections page for a better explanation) to 0.810 which is 61st rated, meaning that's roughly where his draft value should be.
Mitro's current ADP is 73 which we think is slight value for him based on the above math. But, Mitro's ghost points could of course go down more, or his goals total could be significantly different. The best we can do is "expected value" like the above to help determine his value. So if you're comfortable with the risk and/or potentially more bullish on the reward/him being able to replicate his Championship heroics, draft him slightly earlier than his ADP.
Harry Wilson
Position: Midfielder
21/22 Points: 587 (13th best forward)
21/22 Points Per Start: 15.1 (40 starts)
22/23 Projected Points Per Start: 9.4 (34 starts)
Recommended Draft Pick: 70-80 (12 Team League: Round 7)
Overview: Similarly to Mitro, Wilson had a great season in the Championship in 21/22, scoring 10 goals and assisting 19 times. He put up 10.1 ghost points to go with his 15.1, mostly made up of key passes (2.5 per game), shots on target, dribbles, and tackles won. He also was the top set piece taker, taking about half their sets (which should continue, more on that in sleepers). Hence he has more of a ghost point floor than Mitro, so hopefully a more sustainable PPS than his teammate. We'll save you the math this time, but his expected value of 6 assists and 6 goals and a 30% drop-off in ghost points gets you to ~9.4 expected per start and a draft value ranking of 65th. Considering his current ADP is 99, we think Wilson is actually great value near there, so we'd suggest splitting the difference, and getting him earlier than your competitors near the 70-80 mark.
Honorable Mention(s):
We think naming a 3rd definitive best player for Fulham is a fool's errand, but we'll highlight some potentially under-valued sleepers in our Sleepers article.
More Best Fantasy Players: Arsenal | Aston Villa | Bournemouth | Brentford | Brighton | Chelsea | Crystal Palace | Everton | Leeds | Leicester | Liverpool | Man City | Man United | Newcastle | Nottm Forest | Southampton | Tottenham | West Ham | Wolves
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