Our Fantasy EPL 22/23 Draft Kit promises to be the most comprehensive set of pre-season Draft Premier League articles ever produced! A key component of our Draft Kit will be the Team Preview articles which analyze key assets to sit alongside our all-important Draft Rankings. This article delves into the Best Fantrax Fantasy EPL Players from Chelsea, as we take a deep dive into the prospects of their three best assets! Click here for details on how you can access our 22/23 Draft Kit.
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Chelsea Best Fantasy Players
As noted above, these are the Best Chelsea Players for the Fantrax Fantasy EPL platform. We analyze the Blues' top three prospects ahead of the new season, with a recommended draft pick for each player.
Mason Mount
Position: Midfield
21/22 Points: 311 (8th best midfielder)
21/22 Points Per Start: 14.0 (27 starts)
22/23 Projected Points Per Start: 13.1 (28 starts)
Recommended Draft Pick: 12-18 (12 Team League: Early-Mid Round 2)
Overview: Coming off a disappointing season for Chelsea as a whole, Mount saw a reduction in game time with their heavy schedule. However, he still put up his best ever PPS after doubling his goals and assists tally from last season. If you're chasing upside at a slight discount, look no further!
Mount has divided opinion among TDS staff and it's easy to see why. Just 27 starts (after 32 in both 20/21 and 19/20) saw him finish 'just' 15th in total FPts, a big red flag for those who might have considered Mount as a first rounder (many picked him there last season). He did, however, increase his PPS from 13 to 14, but this was achieved in the most part as a "flat track bully" versus very inferior opposition. In fact, Mount scored 57% of his points against the bottom 6 clubs, with 20% of his points coming against Norwich alone. According to Overthinking Football's Quality Starts metric, Mount had 20 Quality starts (77%), with 10 of those in the 90th percentile. Regardless of the opposition, these are incredible gameweek-winning numbers!
This was achieved off the back of a big increase in attacking returns. Mount scored 11 goals (8.9 xG) and got 11 assists (6.7xA). This was a big jump for him in terms of overperforming his xG+xA (a factor of 1.36) - expected goals & assists. In 20/2, he underperformed by a factor 0.76 and in 19/20 just about average at 1.03, so it is yet to be seen whether this is a sustainable level for him. What is good to see is that his xG+xA/90 is continually increasing ever year; he got 0.59 xG+xA/90 in 21/22, 0.45 in 20/21 and 0.37 in 19/20. The last thing to mention is we saw a drop in Mount's ghost point output with 'just' 8.3 gPP90 last season compared to 10.8 in 20/21. As a result, he was a bit more boom or bust this past campaign. Under Tuchel, we are seeing a player that is being relied upon more to both progress the ball and receive the ball in attacking areas, compared to Lampard's reign when he would get involved in deeper positions. Mount is a young but elite player who is constantly improving on his end product and I think we can see this trend continue.
Given all this, how can we possibly project his starts and points? Last season, Chelsea had a crazy fixture schedule, including the Club World Cup, playing the same number of competitive games as Liverpool (63)! This unsurprisingly saw a lot more rotation than I expect this coming season. Mount should be the first name on the team sheet next to Sterling and Havertz in the front 3 and I would expect him to gain at least 30 starts unless the World Cup messes with his playing time. In terms of ghost points, I would project a similar amount in the 8-9 gPP90 range given his more attacking role. He will probably regress a bit in terms of outperforming his xG+xA, but I would also back him to generate more xG+xA so this could balance out.
With the departure of the sulking Lukaku and a new partnership with the dynamic Sterling, I see a lot more chances being created in open play. Mount also derived a good proportion of his points from set pieces. With Chilwell back fit again, we could see this reduce slightly but I expect Mount to at least continue on all right footed set pieces so I don't see these diminishing too much. Mount is being taken early to mid round 2 in most drafts and I personally feel like that could be a very good value. He has the potential to improve and possesses crazy upside to perform at mid round 1 level. He can literally win you a matchup by himself and if that's against worse opposition, who cares? At least that makes him a more predictable asset.
Raheem Sterling
Position: Forward
21/22 Points: 356 (8th best forward)
21/22 Points Per Start: 13.9 (23 starts)
22/23 Projected Points Per Start: 13.4 (29 starts)
Recommended Draft Pick: 13-18 (12 Team League: Round 2)
Overview: Last season, Sterling's unpredictability frustrated managers. He was reduced to just 23 starts but he still managed to produce the goods with a combined 20 goals and assists. With his move to Chelsea, Sterling will be one of the first names on the team sheet & his upside should be considered at the Round 1/2 turn.
Before last season, Sterling generally averaged around 30 starts in the Premier League for Man City, so the drop off to 23 really spoke to his diminished status there. With 1 year left on his contract, he's taken the plunge and moved south to be the main man at Chelsea. Sterling can play anywhere across the front 3 at Chelsea, and we'll likely see him partner Mount as one of the two behind Havertz. But he could also be called upon to play the false 9 role. Now that we're more assured of his starts again - despite Tuchel also being known to tinker - the biggest question mark is how this move impacts his fantasy output.
His City numbers are just insane in terms of chance creation but will that continue in a less prolific attacking setup? It's worth looking back at the beginning of last season when Sterling was out of favour, with just 3 starts in the first 11 games of the season at 4.5 PPS. This is not what you want from a forward you took in the 2nd round of the draft. However, he worked his way back into Pep's good books, starting 20 out of the remaining 27 games and put in some great performances at 15.3 PPS, which is more in line with his average production at Man City in past seasons. Sterling managed 8.4 ghost points per 90 last season, and this is roughly what he's averaged in the past.
His ghosts aren't amazing for a Round1/2 pick so you are definitely relying upon his attacking returns to make him a viable Fantrax asset. In his time at City, Sterling has on average performed bang on his xG+xA, so his fantasy prospects are heavily reliant on Chelsea's ability to create chances. Last season in the Premier League, Chelsea had 24.7 Shot Creating Actions per 90mins, while Man City had 30.1 (Sterling himself contributing 3.8). While this is a significant difference, at Man City this tended to be shared around more equally among many other players. At Chelsea, this is primarily the responsibility of the wing backs (which Sterling could benefit from) and the front 3. Last season, Mount (4.23) and Ziyech (4.37) led the way, and Sterling will likely be playing in Ziyech's place, so we could actually his see his involvement in attacking opportunities increase along with his responsibility.
While Sterling still has question marks over how he beds in at Chelsea (and how they perform generally given the upheaval in players and ownership), we will definitely see increased starts and more reliance on him to create and score goals. If he can get 30+ starts and get close to matching his 15 PPS from last season, then he could be an absolute bargain if you manage to pick him up in the 2nd round.
Reece James
Position: Defender
21/22 Points: 319.5 (8th best defender)
21/22 Points Per Start: 14.3 (22 starts)
22/23 Projected Points Per Start: 13.0 (28 starts)
Recommended Draft Pick: 15-25 (12 Team League: Mid-Late Round 2)
Overview: The definition of upside, Reece James can explode in any gameweek and singlehandedly win you your matchup. But he carries plenty of risks given his injury record & potential rotation in the less unproductive RCB role. He is worth consideration toward the end of round 2; if he falls further, he's a bargain.
Reece James had the 2nd highest standard deviation (14.3) of all players last season, giving him a floor of 0 points and ceiling of 28.6 (just behind Salah and KDB!). He is the textbook definition of a boom or bust player. According to Overthinking Football's Quality Starts Metric; in his 19 starts (over 60mins played), James achieved a Quality start in 63% of matchups, with a whopping 10 Quality Starts. His top scores read 44.5, 38.75, 33.25, 32.5; if you didn't win your matchup with him in your team that gameweek, something crazy must have happened! We did, however, see multiple scores under 2 points, so he has the potential to put in a right stinker.
Chelsea didn't have the best time defensively, especially in the 2nd half of last season, so I'd expect his floor to improve a bit with less goals against and more clean sheets. Chelsea have brought in Koulibaly and are looking add another two centre backs with Kimpembe and Kounde looking the most likely. These signings should not only improve the defence (& clean sheet record) but also reduces the risk of James being forced to play at RCB. Depending on when you draft, these new signings may or may not have gone through so it's up to you to assess the risk. But I think even now that risk/reward starts to tip at the end of the 2nd round and James becomes very good value any time in the 3rd round.
Honorable Mention:
Ben Chilwell is more that just an honourable mention. He sits just 1 place behind James in my ranks given his incredible upside. Why James over Chilwell? Chilwell had a devastating cruciate ligament injury in November last year, which saw him miss the rest of the season. He did return to training at the very end of last season though, so he should be in decent shape with a full pre-season under his belt. But the risk is that he starts slow given the long layoff. While he was fit, Chilwell put up insane numbers; 18.3PPS from 6 starts, although a small sample size, is an indication of his (and the Chelsea wing back position) excellent potential. He could fall a little bit in the draft given the uncertainty over his fitness, so could end up being a bit of a steal. Be wary that his minutes could be managed at the start of the season, though, so recommend closely monitoring the pre-season games for some clues on his fitness.
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