Welcome to The Draft Society’s team-by-team previews, a vital part of the 23/24 Draft Kit! These articles will provide a one-stop-shop for all the important Fantasy EPL themes from a Fantrax perspective. With players to watch, players to avoid, points projections and early season fixtures analysis, we've got it all covered. Our Draft Premier League Team Previews will help set you up to dominate your draft! First up is Mikel Arteta's Arsenal.
Check back often! Our team previews will be updated throughout the summer as any new transfer, injury, or rotation developments come to light.
Check out our 23/24 Draft Kit for all the pre-season information you would ever need. Draft Rankings, Team Previews, Strategy, Draft 101. We've got it all!
Arsenal Team Preview 23/24
Check out our in-depth look at Arsenal's prospects for the new EPL season below. This information will form a key component to your draft prep and set you up to dominate your draft! Let's begin with a look at last year's numbers and see just how this team managed to defy all expectations in 22/23.
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Fantasy Flashback
Let's review how Arsenal players fared in 22/23, with an emphasis on their Draft Premier League fantasy assets. But, we'll also discuss any pertinent info regarding managerial tactics, formation, injuries, etc. What can we learn from their performance in the last campaign?
Note: The following table is interactive. Desktop users can apply the Filter, Group, and Sort buttons to arrange the data to their preferences. Mobile users can tap on a player card to view all data points. The table can be reset to its default state by refreshing the page. It is intentionally >= 7.0 PPS.
It is not often that one team can boast of having 3 players in the top ten in total fantasy points - Saka, Odegaard, & Martinelli - and it likely would have been 4 if Gabriel Jesus had not been hit with a bad injury at the World Cup in December. This was fairly unexpected as only Saka & Jesus cracked the late first round/early second round in most drafts last time out. These Arsenal assets proved to be incredible value, especially Gabriel Martinelli - a 4th/5th round draft pick who ended up a top 10 scorer.
This fantasy equity in the attack should continue as the young Gunners have another season playing together under their belts and are now a well-oiled attacking machine under manager Mikel Arteta. By design, an interchanging front 4 constantly keeps opposition defenses guessing. Outside of Saka, who has earned the right to be classified as a slight cut above, the other three (Odegaard, Martinelli, & Jesus) have little between them. In some leagues, all 4 will be close to first round picks, which is quite unique. Can they keep this up with a new-found Champions League campaign and increased competition for their minutes? Only rotation or injury could derail this freight train.
Outside of the front four (Trossard and Nketiah are included as they both put in shifts when called upon), fantasy value was somewhat hard to come by. The defense was fairly clean-sheet dependent, and that well went dry. Gabriel Magalhaes was the top ghost point scoring defender with an underwhelming 6.6 ghost point per start average. While Granit Xhaka seemingly reinvented himself as a marauding attacking midfielder, delivering 14 attacking returns, he is gone this summer and the other central midfielders (Partey & Jorginho) were not worth rostering.
Record signing Declan Rice could change that with his ability to pick up points from both attacking and defensive stat categories, especially if he fills the attacking void in the engine room left by Xhaka. And how Arteta decides to utilize the enigmatic Kai Havertz - as a left sided midfield "8"/Xhaka role or up top - will have a big fantasy impact. Arsenal is definitely top-heavy, but there may be some surprise sleepers elsewhere, especially if erstwhile benchwarmers Fabio Vieira, Emile Smith Rowe, & Reiss Nelson somehow get meaningful minutes.
Overall Team Performance
Arsenal made arguably the biggest improvement in the Premier League last season, going from 5th to a genuine title charge that ultimately fell a little short. They also passed the eye test with flying colors, playing some spellbinding attacking football at times. There is a clear system being employed by Arteta and the boys are buying into it. This comes through in the fact that Arsenal's goals, the second highest in the league at 88, are so evenly shared among the front 4. Odegaard & Martinelli both led the way with 15 goals each, Saka bagged 14, and Jesus found the back of the net 11 times despite the injury. It's thus no surprise, as mentioned above, that the fantasy points were also shared fairly evenly. While the Gunners could do with a bit more potency from their # 9 (Jesus), this goals by committee should continue, as Arteta's fluid attacking system keeps ticking along.
All in all, the youngest team in the league, which came largely out of nowhere to threaten Manchester City's vice-like grip on the Premier League, should only get better having gone through and learned from that pressure-filled back end of the season. The additions of Rice, Havertz, & Timber add quality depth and steel. This may siphon off some fantasy points, but should also improve the team and perhaps make a title run more sustainable this term. Those who have called for a drop off from the Gunners this upcoming season will likely have some explaining to do come next May.
Fantasy Forecast
Past is prelude, as they say. So, turning to the 23/24 season, we've got Arsenal player projections, 3 key players to keep an eye on, 3 players we're staying away from, 3 question marks surrounding the club at this moment, and an analysis of the Gunners' early-season fixtures.
23/24 Player Projections
Below, you'll find our season projections for Arsenal fantasy assets. Our projections are created using a number of contributing factors such as historical performances, expected team strength, betting odds and more. ProjPPS (Points Per Start) and ProjFPts (Projected Total Points) refer to Fantrax Default Scoring.
There are few surprises above - although it must be said that is impossible to accurately predict the prospects of wild cards such as Kai Havertz. As we know, the big 4 (Saka, Odegaard, Martinelli, & Jesus) will continue to be the most valuable and prolific fantasy assets on this team. But there are a few nuances to consider here. While Saka should be the clear #1 going into the draft, there could be value to be had with Gabriel Jesus, whose overall numbers will be deflated/masked due to his long term injury absence last season, as he finished with a better points per start average than Odegaard or Martinelli, and our projections see this continuing (although not by much). Odegaard, on the other hand, may be inflated given his impressive 15 goals last season from just over 9 xG . He is undoubtedly a tremendous player but can he, or any midfielder for that matter, sustain those goal-scoring levels to justify a top ten pick? Martinelli will be coming off an injury he picked up at the tail end of the season but should be ready for preseason - if he can stay fit, he'll continue to produce and go from strength to strength. For others to watch, see below.
3 Players to Watch
We've highlighted 3 players (and some honorable mentions) from Arsenal that we're keeping an eye on. Some players mentioned below may be sleepers. Some may be up-and-coming youngsters. Some may be vying for a spot in the XI. Whatever the case, we'll tell you why we're watching these 3 in EPL Draft Fantasy this year.
Kai Havertz
Position: Forward
22/23 Points: 265.5 (15th best forward)
22/23 Points Per Start: 8.0 (30 starts)
Recommended Draft Pick: 57-62 (12 Team League: Late 5th Round/Early 6th Round)
Analysis: The German will be one of the biggest enigmas coming into the season. He underwhelmed last season, bar a few games in which he scored, but he has the talent and versatility to thrive in Arteta's system. The problem is that it is difficult to predict where and how often he'll play (see the 3 Biggest Question Marks section below for more detailed analysis). So this pick is high risk, high reward. If Havertz fills the Xhaka role and can hit the ground running, he'll be a steal; if not, he could be a bust. He becomes slightly more valuable paired with someone like Gabriel Jesus (for general Arsenal cover/also just in case he ends up stealing some Jesus starts up front). Given the uncertainty, the 5th round seems about right.
Fabio Vieira
Position: Midfielder
22/23 Points: 66.5 (104th best midfielder)
22/23 Points Per Start: 10.0 (3 starts)
Recommended Draft Pick: 175-190 (12 Team League: Late 15th Round/Early 16th Round)
Analysis: The skinny kid from Portugal was a somewhat surprise signing last summer and he found life fairly difficult in the EPL in his debut season. He did have his moments, however, with a stunning strike against Brentford providing a glimpse of his impressive ball-striking ability. Given the level of investment (over 30m pounds), a year in the EPL/Arteta's system under his belt, and the departure of Xhaka, there could be an opening for Vieira to get some games. And as shown in his very brief appearances, he can do the business. So he could be a good late round flyer/lottery ticket in the draft - an easy drop if he fails to start and a masterstroke if he's somehow able to nail down a role in this team. There's a similar case to be made for Emile Smith Rowe, particularly after a strong U-21 Euros.
Declan Rice
Position: Midfielder
22/23 Points: 303.5 (24th best midfielder)
22/23 Points Per Start: 8.3 (36 starts)
Recommended Draft Pick: 80-90 (12 Team League: Mid 7th Round/Early 8th Round)
Analysis: Arsenal's record signing is dynamic but likely slots into that Partey role as the "6", which can include some attacking runs but also some destroyer duties in front of the back 4. Partey's numbers (7 PPS) in that spot do not invoke much optimism for Rice's fantasy prospects if it's a straight swap. But the young Englishman has a bit more in his game and likely can provide more attacking thrust/scoring ability, which will make him more valuable fantasy-wise. He could be a Norgaard/CDM+ type at Arsenal, putting him in the 7th/8th round territory. But given the high-profile nature of the transfer, he could go earlier than he should.
Honorable Mention:
The big 4 and the players mentioned above will be the main targets in the draft. But there is an argument for taking a defender like Gabriel Magalhaes late - he has the most ghost points of the bunch, heads in the odd goal, and Arsenal have favorable fixtures early doors. There are also a few late draft flyers you could take - Emile Smith Rowe stands out. Reports indicate that he is in the best shape of his life, is determined to get back into the team, and is learning how to play central midfield in the Arteta system. While he found minutes very difficult to come by last campaign, Arteta previously did something similar with Martinelli, slowly integrating him after an injury-plagued season. He's one to watch.
3 Players to Avoid
It's not all sunshine and rainbows at the Emirates. At least, not as far as Draft Fantasy Football is concerned. Below, we will also highlight 3 fantasy assets that we're not so thrilled about. These are the 3 Arsenal players you might want to avoid come draft day.
Oleksandr Zinchenko
Position: Defender
22/23 Points: 189.25 (23rd best defender)
22/23 Points Per Start: 7.3 (26 starts)
Recommended Draft Pick: 115-125 (12 Team League: Late Round 10/Early Round 11)
Analysis: His impact as an inverted full back, building attack after attack from the midfield, was incredibly positive. But his defensive lapses did end up costing the Gunners in a few crucial moments of the season. Fantasy-wise, he was consistently one of the most overrated fantasy assets last season (taken in the 5th round in most drafts & rarely dropped despite his deficiencies). He only boasted a PPS of just over 7 & GPPS around 6, and suffered from a few injuries. In short, the Ukrainian should not be held in such high fantasy esteem. Other than a good game against Bournemouth early on, Zinchenko really failed to set the world on fire. His inflated value means he'll be taken (likely around the 6th/7th round) well before he should - don't be that manager.
Leandro Trossard
Position: Midfielder
22/23 Points: 347 (16th best midfielder)
22/23 Points Per Start: 11.7 (26 starts)
Recommended Draft Pick: 90-100 (12 Team League: Mid Round 8 - Early Round 9)
Analysis: The Belgian had an interesting season - he went from tearing it up at Brighton to completely out of favor with new manager Roberto De Zerbi, and finished the campaign as a key player in Arsenal's title charge. Arriving in North London in the January transfer window, he admitted that he was surprised with how much playing time he was granted in the Gunners' attack. But this had more to do with injuries to the Gabriels (Martinelli & Jesus). Trossard's flexibility allows him to play across the front 3 but his primary role is LW. His numbers are excellent but he is not in Arteta's best XI - the only route to the starting XI is again through injury to the front 3, especially to Martinelli, who is ahead of him in the LW pecking order. Thus, unless you handcuff him with Martinelli, he is not worthy of his average draft position.
William Saliba
Position: Defender
22/23 Points: 183.5 (24th best defender)
22/23 Points Per Start: 7.1 (26 starts)
Recommended Draft Pick: 140-150 (12 Team League: Late Round 12/Early Round 13)
Analysis: An amazing player that just doesn't score that well in fantasy can be quite a frustrating proposition. William Saliba is that player. With ghost point per start of less than 6, he just doesn't offer much value outside of clean sheets and the very occasional attacking return. His name recognition likely means he'll also go earlier than he should - avoid the Frenchman unless he falls quite a bit. The early fixtures are good and a few clean sheets could provide some trade value but not enough to warrant a draft pick before the 12th round.
Honorable Mention:
Ben White nailed down the RB role early doors last season and although his numbers were often middling he did offer some attacking verve and assists at certain points in the season. However, with Tomiyasu coming back and new boy Timber also able to play RB, the Englishman could be rotated and thus poses more risk than other Arsenal defenders, who again largely rely on clean sheets for points.
3 Question Marks
Not everything is crystal clear and predictable at Arsenal. These are 3 questions surrounding the Gunners that we’re grappling with this preseason. We’ll try to note whether or not (and how much) these questions are affecting our perceptions of Arsenal’s fantasy assets.
Return of the Champions League/Added Depth - Arteta proved to be one of the most stubborn managers in the league when it came to his starting XI last season. Other than injuries, nothing could really force him into rotating his best lineup, especially stalwarts like Odegaard and Saka, who both started 37 of 38 EPL games. This was great for fantasy managers who could depend on top assets starting every GW but one could argue that this rigidity ended up being Arteta's downfall. If he had rested Saliba in the Europa League, maybe his injury would have been avoided. Will that change this season with the return of Champions League football to the Emirates and the added depth afforded him in the transfer market?
The answer is likely not much. Arteta will look to continue to play his favored front 4 as much as possible in both the CL & the EPL. The CL fixtures are actually better than the Thursday-Sunday Europa League slog that usually requires more travel. But if Arsenal go deep into CL and the other cup competitions (they didn't last season), he will inherently have to rotate more than he did this season. The positions that are more likely/easily rotated are the following: ST (Nketiah, Kai, or Balogun if he stays); LW (Trossard); LCM (Kai, Vieira, ESR); CDM (Rice, Jorginho, Elneny, Partey?); LB (Tierney, Kiwior); & RB (Timber, Tomiyasu). Based on this assessment, Odegaard & Saka will likely continue to be the most overworked of the bunch. Hopefully the lack of rest won't catch up to them.
The Kai Effect - The signing of Kai Havertz came as quite a shock, particularly to the Arsenal faithful. Why would the club drop roughly 60m pounds on a player who doesn't really have a set position and has somewhat flopped at rivals Chelsea? The argument in favor of this signing would be as follows: 1) he was prolific in Germany and was one of the most sought after transfers just a few years ago; 2) he is still very young (just turned 24) and hasn't yet hit his prime; 3) his versatility allows him to provide much needed depth across a variety of positions; 4) he makes dangerous runs and would greatly benefit from playing in Arteta's free-flowing system; and 5) Arteta can develop and improve players like the very talented German. The counter, of course, is that he had multiple opportunities and never hit the heights he did in the Bundesliga - only 30 goals in his entire time in West London - and the vast sum spent on a "flop" would be better invested elsewhere.
Only time will tell if this ends up being a smart move. But for our purposes, how will this impact the team? If Kai plays up top, it would inherently affect Gabriel Jesus' minutes. If they play together in the attack, it would portend a slight formation shift. If, as reports indicate, Arteta puts him into the Xhaka left-sided midfield role, it would be just a like for like swap and nothing else would change, thus solidifying Jesus up top. But can he be quickly trained up for that role? Would his lack of defensive ability hinder his effectiveness in this role? These are all valid questions and concerns that only time will illuminate. My guess is that he will slot in as a left sided midfielder - at least for matchups against inferior opponents whose low block needs to be unlocked. It would be a lot of money to splurge on just "depth". Let's see where he plays in preseason and act accordingly.
Defensive Solidity - While the Arsenal defense finished tied for second with 14 clean sheets, it was shaky at times, especially after William Saliba succumbed to a bad injury in March. In his absence, they became even more like Manchester City as they often came up with spectacular ways to somehow concede goals and kill clean sheets. Can they get this out of their system? With the young French CB back fit and with a year of EPL experience under his belt, along with the arrival of fresh defensive reinforcements in the shape of Jurrien Timber, the back line could become more secure. The clean sheets would help raise the fantasy prospects of Arsenal defenders, along with the early season fixtures - see below.
While the back line has been shored up, the new look midfield could lack defensive solidity in front of them. While Declan Rice will certainly add to the quality of the engine room, he'll need time to acclimate to the system, as will Kai Havertz (if he plays midfield), who is a bigger defensive liability than Granit Xhaka. The departure of the Swiss (and potentially Partey) could inject some instability in the middle of the park and yield more chances to the opposition, particularly in the beginning of the season. This would offset the defensive reinforcements outlined above. Arteta will have to legislate for this.
Early-Season Fixture Difficulty
The way that teams come out the gate has big implications in EPL Draft. A red hot start creates red hot trade targets. A dismal start means plummeting player values and losses for your fantasy team. Check out our thoughts on Arsenal's early-season fixtures and our analysis of the fantasy implications they will have.
By any metric, Arsenal have a favorable run of early fixtures: Nottingham Forest, Crystal Palace, Fulham, Man United, Everton, & Tottenham. This should give Arsenal assets an added bonus in the draft. If they take advantage of this schedule and come out swinging like last season, they should be at an all time high after this run. There will be a temptation to trade out early on a high - a good problem to have - but they should retain value throughout the season given the prolific attack. In this scenario, however, dealing any defenders (who do not ghost very well, as noted above) would make sense.
23/24 Arsenal Predicted Lineup
The following lineup represents our prediction for the most likely line-up for the long-term for Arsenal in the upcoming season. We can't account for injuries or new transfers, but this should provide a reasonable guide for who will be the preferred starters for the majority of Premier League matches this season.
The Jesus injury complicates things in the early part of the season. While we think Nketiah is the primary beneficiary, Havertz could play in the number 9 role, with Partey coming into the midfield. White should continue in the RB role with Timber playing instead of injured Zinchenko early doors.
More Team Previews: Arsenal | Aston Villa | Bournemouth | Brentford | Brighton | Burnley | Chelsea | Crystal Palace | Everton | Fulham | Luton | Liverpool | Man City | Man United | Newcastle | Nottingham Forest | Sheffield United | Tottenham | West Ham | Wolves
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